GLOBAL TRENDS2040 A MORE CONTESTED WORLD RUSSIA AND EURASIA a Internet Users (of population)c FIVE LARGEST CITIES By population in 2035 (million)b % GDP PER CAPITA 0 54.7 100 US$ at purchasing202020402020 b 1MOSCOW, RUSSIA12.8power parity 2019 Digital skills of workforce ratingd TYPES OF READINESS FOR $18.4K$30.4K a 3.9 2SAINT PETERSBURG, RUSSIA5.6GOVERNMENTS DIGITAL ECONOMY 1 = not at all to a great extent = 7 Number of countries 3TASHKENT, UZBEKISTAN3.0c Information globalization ratinge RELIGION 0 79.2 Liberal Democracies 1 = low high = 100 4KYIV, UKRAINE3.0202061.3%32.5%5.5%Hold free and fair multiparty elections and guarantee freedom of speech and b 2019 or latest available data. 5BAKU, AZERBAIJAN2.82040%%%expression. Liberal democracies also c International Telecommunication Union. 57.638.13.6 uphold the rule of law and have d World Economic Forum. ChristianMuslimAgnostic/constraints on the executive. e KOF Globalization Index. Atheist 3 Electoral Democracies f 20202040 This map illustrates likely changes in maximum temperature, aa Hold free and fair multiparty elections drought, and hurricane/cyclone activity in 2040—compared to AGE STRUCTUREAGE STRUCTUREand guarantee freedom of speech and expression, but do not uphold the 1980-2005 baseline—given conditions specified by the Under 1515-6465+Under 1515-6465+the rule of law and/or do not have United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change constraints on the executive. (IPCC) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. 21.2% 66.0% 12.8%18.0% 64.9% 17.1% While several different temperature measures could have been 2040 used, maximum temperature on the hottest day of the year was 8 TEMPERATURE, chosen given the severe human, agricultural, and economic costs MALEAge FEMALEMALE AgeFEMALEElectoral Autocracies DROUGHT, AND associated with heat waves. When combined with longer 80+80+ Hold elections but they are not free, fair, HURRICANE droughts, these effects are multiplied. 75-7975-79 and multiparty, and/or the government ACTIVITY 70-7470-74 does not guarantee freedom of speech 65-6965-69 and expression. 60-6460-64 0 2.5 55-5955-59 Increase in the hottest day 50-5450-54 1 temperature, Celsius 45-4945-49 Closed Autocracies 40-4440-44 Do not even hold multiparty 35-3935-39 elections for the chief executive. 30-3430-34 Increase in the longest annual 25-2925-29 drought by 2.5 days or more 20-2420-24 a Varieties of Democracy, 2020. The 15-1915-19 number of countries included in this 10-1410-14 study may not equal the number listed f Data: Clemens Schwingshackl, Jana Sillman, and the Centre for 5-95-9 separately under “Selected Regions Increase in major International Climate and Environmental Research. 0-40-4 and Countries. hurricane activity Graphic: Pardee Center University of Denver. 151050051015151050051015 MillionMillion abc United Nations Population Division. | Oxford Economics. | World Religion Database. 127