GLOBAL TRENDS2040 A MORE CONTESTED WORLD MIDDLE EAST & NORTH AFRICA a Internet Users (of population)c FIVE LARGEST CITIES By population in 2035 (million) b % GDP PER CAPITA 0 42.9 100 US$ at purchasing 2020 2040 2020 b 1 CAIRO, EGYPT 28.5 power parity 2019 Digital skills of workforce ratingd TYPES OF READINESS FOR $15.3K $19.9K a 3.6 2 BAGHDAD, IRAQ 10.8 GOVERNMENTS DIGITAL ECONOMY 1 = not at all to a great extent = 7 Number of countries 3 TEHRAN, IRAN 10.7 c Information globalization ratinge RELIGION 2 69.8 Liberal Democracies 1 = low high = 100 4 RIYADH, SAUDI ARABIA 9.1 2020 % % % 92.9 3.9 1.5 Hold free and fair multiparty elections and guarantee freedom of speech and b 2019 or latest available data. 5 ALEXANDRIA, EGYPT 7.2 2040 % % % expression. Liberal democracies also c International Telecommunication Union. 93.2 3.6 1.5 uphold the rule of law and have d World Economic Forum. Muslim Christian Jewish constraints on the executive. e KOF Globalization Index. Electoral Democracies 0 f 2020 2040 This map illustrates likely changes in maximum temperature, a a Hold free and fair multiparty elections drought, and hurricane/cyclone activity in 2040—compared to AGE STRUCTURE AGE STRUCTURE and guarantee freedom of speech and expression, but do not uphold the 1980-2005 baseline—given conditions specified by the Under 15 15-64 65+ Under 15 15-64 65+ the rule of law and/or do not have United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change % % % % % % constraints on the executive. (IPCC) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. 29.8 64.8 5.4 23.6 66.5 9.9 While several different temperature measures could have been 2040 used, maximum temperature on the hottest day of the year was 5 TEMPERATURE, chosen given the severe human, agricultural, and economic costs MALE Age FEMALE MALE Age FEMALE Electoral Autocracies DROUGHT, AND associated with heat waves. When combined with longer 80+ 80+ Hold elections but they are not free, fair, HURRICANE droughts, these effects are multiplied. 75-79 75-79 and multiparty, and/or the government ACTIVITY 70-74 70-74 does not guarantee freedom of speech 65-69 65-69 and expression. 60-64 60-64 0 2.5 55-59 55-59 Increase in the hottest day 50-54 50-54 12 temperature, Celsius 45-49 45-49 Closed Autocracies 40-44 40-44 Do not even hold multiparty 35-39 35-39 elections for the chief executive. 30-34 30-34 Increase in the longest annual 25-29 25-29 drought by 2.5 days or more 20-24 20-24 a Varieties of Democracy, 2020. The f Data: Clemens Schwingshackl, Jana Sillman, and the Centre for 15-19 15-19 number of countries included in this 10-14 10-14 study may not equal the number listed International Climate and Environmental Research. 5-9 5-9 separately under “Selected Regions Increase in major Graphic: Pardee Center University of Denver. 0-4 0-4 and Countries. hurricane activity 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 Million Million a b c 128 United Nations Population Division. | Oxford Economics. | World Religion Database.