THE FUTURE OF TERRORISM: DIVERSE ACTORS, FRAYING INTERNATIONAL EFFORTS errorist groups will continue to exploit societal fragmen- cause these are generally sufficient, accessible, and reliable. tation and weak governance to push their ideologies and However, technological advances, including AI, biotechnology, Tgain power through violence. During the next 20 years, and the Internet of Things, may offer opportunities for terror- regional and intrastate conflicts, demographic pressures, ists to conduct high-profile attacks by developing new, more environmental degradation, and democratic retrenchment remote attack methods and to collaborate across borders. are likely to exacerbate the political, economic, and social Terrorists will also seek weapons of mass destruction and oth- grievances terrorists have long exploited to gain supporters er weapons and approaches that will allow them to conduct as well as safe havens to organize, train, and plot. These spectacular mass casualty attacks. For example, Islamic State accelerants, the intensity and effects of which are likely to of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) has already launched mustard gas be uneven across different regions and countries, probably attacks and uses unmanned aerial vehicles extensively—as will also foster rural to urban international migration, further do Iranian-supported Shia militants. Autonomous delivery straining state resources and diminishing global and local vehicles guided with the help of AI systems could enable a counterterrorism efforts. single terrorist to strike dozens of targets in the same inci- • Global jihadist groups are likely to be the largest, most dent. Augmented reality environments could also enable vir- persistent transnational threat as well as a threat in their tual terrorist training camps, connecting experienced plotters home regions. They benefit from a coherent ideology that protected by distant sanctuaries with potential operatives. promises to deliver a millenarian future, from strong orga- Technological innovations that expand surveillance capacity nizational structures, and from the ability to exploit large may help governments to combat terrorists despite chal- areas of ungoverned or poorly governed territory, notably lenges posed by poor governance. Governments are likely in Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia. to continue dramatically expanding the amount and types • Extreme “rightwing” and “leftwing” terrorists promoting a of information they collect as well as the tools to sort and range of issues—racism, environmentalism, and anti-gov- organize that data. Advances in biometric identification, data ernment extremism, for example—may revive in Europe, mining, full-motion video analysis, and metadata analysis will Latin America, North America, and perhaps other regions. provide governments with improved capabilities to identify • Insurgent groups and sectarian conflicts—increasingly terrorists and plotting. Development of precision long-range around ethno-nationalist and communal causes—will also strike capabilities might undermine terrorist safe havens that continue to foster terrorism. The specific groups will wax are inaccessible to police or infantry forces. and wane as some are defeated and others gain power. Geopolitics Reshaping Counterterrorism Landscape Although some groups will aspire to conduct transnational Shifting international power dynamics—in particular, the attacks and maintain cross border connections, most at- rise of China and major power competition—are likely to tacks will continue to be perpetrated by local actors against challenge US-led counterterrorism efforts and may make local targets aimed at achieving local objectives. it increasingly difficult to forge bilateral partnerships or • Iran’s and Lebanese Hizballah’s efforts to solidify a Shia multilateral cooperation on traveler data collection and in- “axis of resistance” also might increase the threat of asym- formation-sharing efforts that are key to preventing terrorists metric attacks on US, Israeli, Saudi, and others’ interests in from crossing borders and entering new conflict zones. Poor the Middle East. countries probably will struggle with homegrown threats, particularly if international counterterrorism assistance is Technology Evolving Tactics for Terrorists more limited. Some countries facing existential threats, such and Counterterrorism Forces as insurgencies in which terrorists are active, may choose Most terrorist attacks during the next 20 years probably will to forge non-aggression pacts that leave terrorists free to continue to use weapons similar to those currently avail- organize within their borders and others compelled to submit able—such as small arms and improvised explosives—be- to terrorist rule over significant parts of their territory. A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 107 Photo / Bigstock