SCENARIOS FOR 2040 CHARTING THE FUTURE AMID UNCERTAINTY he previous chapters of Global Trends 2040 described how key structural forces are laying the foundations for our future world, including demo- Tgraphics, environment, economics, and technology, and then explored the dynamics emerging within societies, states, and the international system as communities and leaders respond to and engage with these forces. These sections point to a world that is increasingly out of balance and contested at every level, but this trajectory is not set in stone. To better understand how these conditions might play out differently during the next 20 years, we developed scenarios describing a range of possible global futures. Three key questions or uncertainties helped to shape these scenarios. • How severe are the looming global challenges? • How do states and nonstate actors engage in the world, including focus and type of engagement? • Finally, what do states prioritize for the future? 108 Image / Bigstock