Using these questions, we have identi昀椀ed 昀椀ve plausible, distinctive, and illustrative stories of the future. Each re昀氀ects the key themes of shared global challenges, fragmentation, disequi- librium, adaptation, and greater contestation. Three of the scenarios portray futures RENAISSANCE OF DEMOCRACIES in which international challenges become incrementally more severe, A WORLD ADRIFT and interactions are largely de昀椀ned by the US-China rivalry. In Renaissance of Democracies, the United States leads a COMPETITIVE COEXISTENCE resurgence of democracies. In A World Adrift, China is the leading but not SEPARATE SILOS globally dominant state, and in Com- petitive Coexistence, the United States and China prosper and compete for TRAGEDY AND MOBILIZATION leadership in a bifurcated world. Two other scenarios depict more radical change. Both arise from particularly severe global discontinuities, and both defy assumptions about the global system. The US-China rivalry is less central in these scenarios because both states are forced to contend with larger, more severe global challenges and 昀椀nd that current structures are not matched to these challenges. Separate Silos portrays a world in which glo- balization has broken down, and economic and security blocs emerge to protect states from mounting threats. Tragedy and Mobilization is a story of bottom-up, revolutionary change on the heels of devastating global environmental crises. A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 109 Image / Bigstock