SCENARIO 1 RENAISSANCE OF DEMOCRACIES n 2040, the world is in the midst of a HOW WE GOT THERE resurgence of open democracies led by The successful development and worldwide Ithe United States and its allies. Rapid distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine in 2020-21 technological advancements fostered by focused global attention on the importance of scienti昀椀c research, innovation, and technolog- public-private partnerships in the United ical development to address emerging global States and other democratic societies are challenges. Networks of research institutes, transforming the global economy, raising governmental agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and private corporations operat- incomes, and improving the quality of life ing in Organization for Economic Cooperation for millions around the globe. The rising and Development countries ramped up infor- tide of economic growth and technological mation-sharing and developed coordinated achievement enables responses to global approaches for research and development focused on arti昀椀cial intelligence, biotech, and challenges, eases societal divisions, other technologies critical to revitalizing econo- and renews public trust in democratic mies and addressing societal needs. During the institutions. In contrast, years of increasing succeeding 10 years, these e昀昀orts produced a series of groundbreaking advances, enhancing societal controls and monitoring in China productivity and leading to an economic boom. Technological advances and economic growth and Russia have sti昀氀ed innovation as leading scientists and entrepreneurs combined to improve government capacity, have sought asylum in the United States enabling democratic governments to deliver services and provide security more e昀昀ectively. and Europe. With greater resources and improving services, these democracies launched initiatives to crack down on corruption, increase transparency, and improve accountability worldwide, boosting pub- lic trust. These e昀昀orts helped to reverse years of social fragmentation and to restore a sense of civic nationalism. The combination of rapid innovation, a stronger economy, and greater societal cohesion enabled steady progress on climate and other challenges. Democratic soci- eties became more resilient to disinformation because of greater public awareness and educa- 110 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040 Photo / Bigstock