tion initiatives and new technologies that quickly platforms developed during the pandemic. identify and debunk erroneous information. This With China’s rise no longer seen as inevitable, environment restored a culture of vigorous but leading states and investors turned to more civil debate over values, goals, and policies. rapidly growing economies with robust private In contrast to the culture of collaboration sectors and innovation systems. prevailing in open societies, Russia and China Autocratic regimes tried but failed to push failed to cultivate the high-tech talent, invest- back against the growing strength of demo- ment, and environment necessary to sustain cratic allies. Russia threatened to intervene on continuous innovation. For China, the complete behalf of ethnic Russian minorities in several crackdown on Hong Kong in 2022 launched of the non-North Atlantic Treaty Organization a decade of even greater digital repression, (NATO) post-Soviet states, a move widely seen limiting any semblance of free expression. While as a desperate last attempt by Moscow to they remained strategic military powers, both divert attention from its domestic problems. China and Russia were bogged down by domes- China took threatening steps in the South tic strains. China’s aging population, high public China Sea. Both invested in asymmetric weap- and private debt, and ine昀케cient state-directed ons systems and disinformation technologies economic model blocked the country’s transition to counter US advantages while avoiding the to a consumer economy, and by 2029 China was costs of direct violence. stuck in the middle-income trap and had alien- ated populations in developing countries. Russia declined because of a stagnating workforce, KEY TAKEAWAYS overreliance on energy exports, and post-Putin elite in昀椀ghting. By the mid-2030s, the United States and its Open, democratic systems proved better able to foster allies in Europe and Asia were the established scientific research and technological innovation, catalyzing an global leaders in several technologies, includ- economic boom. Strong economic growth, in turn, enabled ing AI, robotics, the Internet of Things, biotech, democracies to meet many domestic needs, address global energy storage, and additive manufacturing. challenges, and counter rivals. Democracies joined forces to set international standards to limit the negative consequences of The combination of better service provision and anticorruption technologies, including disinformation that had efforts helped restore public trust in institutions and eventually previously been so divisive in open societies. mended many fractured societies. Strong differences in public Multilateral cooperation spilled over into other preferences and beliefs remained but these were worked areas, including cyber security, climate change mitigation, and rules for managing the seabed, out democratically. the Arctic, and space. US leadership proved central to multilateral coordination and Technological success fostered a widely per- focus on global challenges, building on established alliances ceived view among emerging and developing and international institutions. A revival in the EU and Unit- countries that democracies were more adapt- ed Kingdom, spurred on by technological innovation and able and resilient and better able to cope with economic growth, was key to broader success. growing global challenges. Years of unful昀椀lled Chinese promises also pushed some of the most populous countries, including Brazil, Indonesia, Over time, the combination of severe repression, stalled India, and Nigeria, to fully embrace transparent economic growth, and mounting demographic pressures democracy. The rapid di昀昀usion of advanced undermined established authoritarian regimes in China and technologies to developing economies enabled Russia, making them less predictable and more aggressive in faster than expected improvements in educa- their neighborhoods. tion and job skills, building on remote learning Photo / Bigstock A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 111