SCENARIO 2 A WORLD ADRIFT n 2040, the international system is HOW WE GOT THERE directionless, chaotic, and volatile as Many of the world’s advanced and emerging Iinternational rules and institutions are market economies never fully recovered from the largely ignored by major powers such COVID-19 pandemic, which was prolonged by a slow and ine昀케cient vaccine rollout. By the late- as China, regional players, and nonstate 2020s, high national debt, the costs of caring for actors. Organization for Economic aging populations, and repeated climate events Cooperation and Development (OECD) strained government budgets and crowded out other spending priorities, like education, infra- countries are plagued by slower structure, and scienti昀椀c research and develop- economic growth, widening societal ment. Environmental, health, and economic crises divisions, and political paralysis. China had emerged gradually and sporadically over the is taking advantage of the West’s decade, limiting political support and resources for governments to take action beyond emer- troubles to expand its international gency relief and short-term economic stimulus. Economic hardships widened societal divisions in昀氀uence, especially in Asia, but lacks the will and military might to take on and made it harder to reach political compromise on domestic and national security priorities. global leadership, leaving many global challenges, such as climate change Public frustrations and protests grew in many countries, but fragmented and competing oppo- and instability in developing countries, sition movements were unable to agree on clear largely unaddressed. demands and goals. Polarized societies, shaped by social media, led to more political deadlock and wild policy swings. These factionalized com- munities, primarily in democratic countries, were unable to take e昀昀ective action on the economy, the environment, migration, and foreign policy. Uncertainty surrounding crises and erratic gov- ernment responses suppressed investment and job creation, plunging North America and Europe into a period of sluggish growth that many lik- ened to Japan’s “lost decade” in the 1990s. Devel- oping countries stagnated, with some turning to China and several su昀昀ering state failure, particu- 112 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040 Photo / Bigstock