and reap the bene昀椀ts while mitigating harmful nizations will also have powerful tools such as e昀昀ects, such as threats to privacy and liberty. video manipulation, or deep fakes, to improve Although many new AI developments will be tailored marketing or advance a particular available globally, there are disproportion- narrative. Emerging AI applications may also become potential targets for data manipula- ate advantages for nations that can a昀昀ord to tion to skew their output. support, develop, and adopt AI now. Wide- spread adoption of AI, particularly in warfare, Ethics of Autonomy. AI’s development and also increases the risk of intentional misuse or the level of human involvement in decision- unintended engagement or escalation. making, if any, will continue to raise ethical Industry and Labor Transformed. AI will concerns, and perspectives on ethical obliga- transform almost all industries and disrupt tions are likely to be di昀昀er globally. In addi- tion, the opaque nature of AI decisionmaking the global labor force, creating new job 昀椀elds, increases the possibility of unintentional eliminating others, and driving signi昀椀cant eco- bias, discrimination, unexpected outcomes, nomic and social redistributions. Human-ma- or intentional misdirection. Cooperation to chine teaming will be common for many advance trustworthy AI, with transparent and future jobs. To harness the advantages of AI clear decisionmaking processes, may improve while mitigating unemployment, countries and corporations will need to focus on education trust and con昀椀dence for all parties. Although and retraining their workforce. many countries will develop strict rules on the use of personal data, there will be debate on Data Will Be King. AI dependent industries whether these rules can coexist with the full and organizations of the future will require realization of AI capabilities. massive quantities of data to operate e昀케cient- AI Enhanced Warfare. AI will confer strong ly and competitively. Institutions, companies, advantages to countries that incorporate AI and countries already investing in ways to into their military systems. AI will enhance the acquire, classify, store, and monetize data performance of existing weapons, defenses, will have advantages. The unprecedented and security systems, both physical and cyber, amounts of data available in 2040 will provide while counter-AI techniques, designed to valuable insights and capabilities but also negate or confuse AI decision making, also are open up access, privacy, ownership, and con- likely to emerge. trol of data as areas of increasing competition and con昀氀ict. Smart Materials and Manufacturing Security and Privacy Reimagined. Current Are Building a New World notions of privacy will continue to evolve, with By 2040, advances in novel materials, cou- individuals needing to share more personal pled with smart manufacturing, will reshape information for access to applications, and the production of everything from consumer tracking becoming ubiquitous. Authoritarian goods to high-end military systems, reducing governments are likely to exploit increased costs, extending capabilities, shifting supply data to monitor and even control their popula- chains, and enabling entirely new design tions. Moreover, many companies and orga- options. The period of rapid change we are entering is often referred to as a Fourth A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 59