TRAJECTORY OF ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE Artificial intelligence (AI) is the demonstration of cognition and creative problem solving by machines rather than humans or animals, ranging from narrow AI, designed to solve specific problems, to Artificial General Intelligence MATCH OR (AGI), a system that in the future may match a human EXCEED HUMAN being’s understanding and learning capacity. CAPABILITY AND INTELLIGENCE ARTIFICIAL NARROW ARTIFICIAL GENERAL INTELLIGENCE INTELLIGENCE PERFORM ONE SPECIFIC TASK Voice Facial Autonomous MACHINE INTELLIGENCE Email spam recognition recognition vehicles AGI emergence and Airplane Antilock autopilot brakes filter capability are unclear 1970 80 90 2000 10 20 30 40 50 60 tential for transformative change and provide designed to solve speci昀椀c problems, to Arti昀椀- examples of the potential consequences of cial General Intelligence, a system that in the new technologies in the coming decades. The future may match or exceed a human being’s following sections on AI, biotechnology, and understanding and learning capacity. By 2040, materials and manufacturing—selected after AI applications, in combination with other consultation with technology leaders—high- technologies, will bene昀椀t almost every aspect light the potential bene昀椀ts and risks of new of life, including improved healthcare, safer technologies individually and collectively in and more e昀케cient transportation, personal- creating a future hyperconnected world. Ad- ized education, improved software for ev- vances in these areas will combine with other eryday tasks, and increased agricultural crop technologies, such as energy storage, to shape yields. Political and business leaders world- societies, economies, and perhaps the nature wide are seeking global talent and are pouring of power. resources into developing AI, hoping to be Arti昀椀cial Intelligence among the 昀椀rst to use it to reshape societies, economies, and even war. Enabled by concur- Becoming Mainstream rent increases in high-quality data, computing AI is the demonstration of cognition and cre- capability, and high-speed communication ative problem solving by machines rather than links, AI will challenge leaders to keep pace humans or animals, ranging from narrow AI, 58 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040