SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA LIKELY TO DOMINATE POPULATION GROWTH IN COMING DECADES WORLD POPULATION: ANNUAL CHANGE BY REGION, 1951-2100 Million persons 120 UN estimate UN forecast Latin America and Caribbean 1988, peak year of (medium Europe, North America, 100 added population, scenario) and Russia/FSU 93 million East Asia, Southeast Asia, and Oceania 80 South Asia Sub-Sarahan Africa Middle East and North Africa 60 40 20 0 -20 1951 60 70 80 90 2000 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2100 Source: United Nations Population Division. age in 2040, up from an already elevated 66 old of 30 which is often associated with higher percent in 2020. Latin America and the Middle levels of human development. More than East and North Africa probably will also bene昀椀t one-third of Sub-Saharan Africa’s population from peak working-age population propor- will be younger than 15 in 2040, compared tions of above 65 percent in the coming 20 with only 14 percent of the population in East years. These opportunities for higher poten- Asia. Other populous countries that most likely tial economic growth will occur only if those will still be below the median age threshold in workers are adequately trained and can 昀椀nd 2040 are Afghanistan, Egypt, and Pakistan. jobs. South Asia’s ongoing challenges in job creation, technology adoption, and skills train- URBANIZATION CHANGING DEVELOPMENT NEEDS ing suggest that it will have di昀케culties fully During the next 20 years, the success or failure leveraging its potential labor force. of cities will shape opportunities and quality of Youthful Populations. During the next two life for a growing share of the world’s popula- decades, most countries with large youth pop- tion. The urban population share is expected ulations will be challenged to meet the basic to rise from 56 percent in 2020 to nearly two- needs of their populations, particularly in light thirds by 2040, with nearly all of the growth of the social volatility often associated with in the developing world. Globally, large cities youth bulges. In Sub-Saharan Africa, the me- of more than 1 million residents have been dian age is likely to rise only slightly to 22 by growing at twice the rate of the overall pop- 2040, still well short of the median age thresh- ulation, and nearly 30 percent of the world’s A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 19