Although European countries early in the crisis imposed restrictions on border tra昀케c and ex- ports of critical medical supplies, the European Union has rallied around an economic rescue package and other emergency measures that could bolster the European integration project going forward. COVID-19 could also lead to re- direction of national budgets toward pandemic response and economic recovery, diverting funds from defense expenditures, foreign aid, and infrastructure programs in some coun- tries, at least in the near term. MORE QUESTIONS THAN ANSWERS The unanticipated second- and third-order e昀昀ects of the COVID-19 pandemic have re- minded us how uncertain the future is—both in the long and short term. As researchers and analysts, we must be ever vigilant, asking better questions, frequently challenging our assumptions, checking our biases, and looking for weak signals of change. We need to expect the unexpected and apply the lessons of this pandemic to our craft in the future.   Photo / Bigstock A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 13