Catalyzing Economic Trends. Lockdowns, to more severely crack down on dissent and quarantines, and the closing of international restrict civic freedoms, conditions that may borders have catalyzed some pre-existing outlive the disease. economic trends, including diversi昀椀cation Highlighting Failed International Cooper- in global supply chains, increased national ation. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the debt, and greater government intervention in weaknesses and political cleavages in interna- economies. Moving forward, the character of tional institutions, such as the World Health globalization may retain some of the changes Organization (WHO) and United Nations, and from this crisis period, and debt, particularly called into question countries’ ability and will- for developing economies, will strain national ingness to cooperate multilaterally to address capacities for many years. common challenges beyond infectious disease, Reinforcing Nationalism and Polarization. particularly climate change. The WHO, which Nationalism and polarization have been on has faced signi昀椀cant funding di昀케culties and the rise in many countries, especially exclu- resistance to mandatory surveillance regimes, sionary nationalism. E昀昀orts to contain and is facing its gravest shock in nearly two de- manage the virus have reinforced nationalist cades. The crisis, however, may ultimately lead trends globally as some states turned inward actors to make deeper reforms, standardize to protect their citizens and sometimes cast data collection and sharing, and forge new blame on marginalized groups. The response public-private partnerships. to the pandemic has fueled partisanship and Elevating the Role of Nonstate Actors. Non- polarization in many countries as groups argue state actors, ranging from the Gates Founda- over the best way to respond and seek scape- tion to private companies, have been crucial to goats to blame for spreading the virus and for slow responses. vaccine research or retro昀椀tting equipment to mass produce medical supplies and personal Deepening Inequality. The disproportionate protective equipment. Nonstate networks will economic impact of COVID-19 on low-income complement national and intergovernmental earners has caused them to fall further behind. action in future health crises, including early When COVID-19 is 昀椀nally controlled, many fam- warning, treatment, facilitation of data-sharing, ilies are likely to have experienced further set- and vaccine development. backs, especially those working in the service or informal sectors or who left the workforce WHILE OTHERS DECELERATE OR REVERSE to provide dependent care—predominantly COVID-19 is slowing and possibly reversing women. The pandemic has exposed the digital some longstanding trends in human develop- divide within and between countries while ment, especially the reduction of poverty and spurring e昀昀orts to improve Internet access. disease and closing gender inequality gaps. Straining Governance. The pandemic is The longest lasting reversals may be in poverty straining government capacity for services and reduction across Africa, Latin America, and contributing to already low levels of trust in South Asia, followed by losses in gender equal- institutions in countries that have not e昀昀ec- ity. The resources devoted to 昀椀ghting COVID-19 tively handled the response. The pandemic and social restrictions could reverse years of is exacerbating the confusing and polarized progress against malaria, measles, polio, and information environment that is undermining other infectious diseases by consuming key public con昀椀dence in health authorities, particu- 昀椀nancial, material, and personnel resources. larly in open societies. Illiberal regimes in some The COVID-19 emergency may bring regions countries are using the pandemic as a pretext together in ways that previous crises have not. 12 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040