The COVID-19 Factor: Expanding Uncertainty HE COVID-19 PANDEMIC EMERGED GLOBALLY IN 2020, WREAKING HAVOC ACROSS THE WORLD, KILLING MORE THAN 2.5 MILLION PEOPLE AS OF EARLY 2021, DEVAS- TTATING FAMILIES AND COMMUNITIES, AND DISRUPTING ECONOMIES AND POLITI- CAL DYNAMICS WITHIN AND BETWEEN COUNTRIES. PREVIOUS GLOBAL TRENDS EDITIONS FORECASTED THE POTENTIAL FOR NEW DISEASES AND EVEN IMAGINED SCENARIOS WITH A PANDEMIC, BUT WE LACKED A FULL PICTURE OF THE BREADTH AND DEPTH OF ITS disruptive potential. COVID-19 has shaken long-held assumptions about resilience and adaptation and created new uncertainties about the economy, governance, geopolitics, and technology. To understand and assess the impact of this crisis, we examined and debated a broad range of our assumptions and assessments related to key global trends. We asked a series of questions: Which existing trends will endure, which trends are accelerating or decelerating because of the pandemic, and where are we likely to experience fundamental, systemic shifts? Are the disrup- tions temporary or could the pandemic unleash new forces to shape the future? Much like the terrorist attacks of 11 September 2001, the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to produce some changes that will be felt for years to come and change the way we live, work, and govern domestically and internationally. How great these will be, however, is very much in question. ACCELERATING, SHARPENING SOME TRENDS The pandemic and corresponding national responses appear to be honing and accelerating several trends that were already underway before the outbreak. COVID-19 brought global health and healthcare issues into sharp relief, exposed and in some cases widened social 昀椀ssures, underscored vast disparities in healthcare access and infrastructure, and interrupted e昀昀orts to combat other diseases. The pandemic also highlighted weaknesses in the international coordina- tion on health crises and the mismatch between existing institutions, funding levels, and future health challenges. A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 11 Giacomo Carra / Unsplash