that are vector-borne (West Nile, malaria, Den- pledges to become carbon neutral—such as gue), waterborne (cholera), airborne (in昀氀uen- Chile, the European Union (EU), Japan, New za, hantavirus), and food-borne (salmonella). Zealand, and South Korea by 2050, and China Loss of Biodiversity. The variability among all by 2060. living organisms—known as biodiversity—is As climate modeling improves, divisions are declining faster than at any point in human likely to become more pronounced between history, risking food and health security and those who advocate reaching net zero emis- undermining global resilience. Warming sions over decades by transitioning to new temperatures are likely to lead to the extinc- technologies and those who argue that net tion of plants and animals that can no longer zero must be achieved more quickly to pre- survive in their traditional habitats or shift vent the worst outcomes. State pledges factor quickly to new locations as well as encourage in advancements in technologies to mitigate the spread of invasive species that choke out emissions while boosting economic growth native organisms. and assume that the worst e昀昀ects of climate Increased Migration. Extreme weather change can be avoided through a more events increase the risk of more environmen- gradual approach. Advocates of faster action tally-induced migration, which usually occurs argue that the window to avoid the cataclys- mic e昀昀ects is closing and that more dramatic, within states as a昀昀ected populations move immediate behavioral changes are required. to nearby communities, often temporarily. Limiting the global temperature increase to Climate change probably will exacerbate this as sea level rise or extreme heat makes certain 1.5°C will require unprecedented changes in locales permanently uninhabitable, although energy consumption and production to allow mainly after 2040, possibly causing permanent developing countries to grow their economies migration and movement to other states. while not o昀昀setting the carbon reductions from developed countries. MITIGATION GAINING TRACTION Energy Transition Underway E昀昀orts to set a path toward net zero green- A critical aspect of the global debate and the house gas emissions will intensify during the ability to mitigate climate change is the speed coming decade and spark increased debate of the transition from fossil fuels to renewable about how and how soon to achieve this goal. energy. Even though fossil fuels will continue The 2015 Paris Agreement set a global goal of to supply the majority of energy needs during limiting warming to less than 2°C, preferably the next 20 years, wind and solar are almost to 1.5°C, and resulted in countries volunteer- certain to grow faster than any other energy ing modest targets to reduce or establish a source because of technological advances and peak for their emissions. Although developed falling costs, and nuclear power production country emissions have continued to decline may grow, particularly if new, safer designs largely because of increased energy e昀케cien- emerge. Increasing energy e昀케ciencies proba- cy and use of natural gas, and the COVID-19 bly will also reduce the rate of energy demand pandemic also caused a brief drop in global growth and the carbon intensity per unit of en- emissions—overall emissions have continued ergy used. A range of current and future tech- to increase. This trend has led to a growing nological developments—as well as regulatory number of countries making more ambitious and investment choices by governments, 36 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040