GLOBAL TRENDS2040 A MORE CONTESTED WORLD SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA a Internet Users (of population)c FIVE LARGEST CITIES By population in 2035 (million)b % GDP PER CAPITA 0 17.6 100 US$ at purchasing202020402020 b 1KINSHASA, DRC26.7power parity 2019 Digital skills of workforce ratingd TYPES OF READINESS FOR $3.6K$4.7K a 2.7 2LAGOS, NIGERIA24.4GOVERNMENTS DIGITAL ECONOMY 1 = not at all to a great extent = 7 Number of countries 3LUANDA, ANGOLA14.5c Information globalization ratinge RELIGION 1 61.0 Liberal Democracies 1 = low high = 100 4DAR ES SALAAM, TANZANIA13.42020%%% 57.232.29.3 Hold free and fair multiparty elections and guarantee freedom of speech and b 2019 or latest available data. 5KHARTOUM, SUDAN9.62040%%%expression. Liberal democracies also c International Telecommunication Union. 58.133.77.1 uphold the rule of law and have d World Economic Forum. ChristianMuslimEthnicconstraints on the executive. e KOF Globalization Index. Religion 17 Electoral Democracies f 20202040 This map illustrates likely changes in maximum temperature, aa Hold free and fair multiparty elections drought, and hurricane/cyclone activity in 2040—compared to AGE STRUCTUREAGE STRUCTURE and guarantee freedom of speech the 1980-2005 baseline—given conditions specified by the and expression, but do not uphold United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Under 1515-6465+Under 1515-6465+the rule of law and/or do not have (IPCC) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. constraints on the executive. 42.0% 55.0% 3.0%36.0% 60.0% 3.9% While several different temperature measures could have been 2040 used, maximum temperature on the hottest day of the year was TEMPERATURE, chosen given the severe human, agricultural, and economic costs MALEAge FEMALEMALE Age FEMALEElectoral Autocracies 27 DROUGHT, AND associated with heat waves. When combined with longer 80+80+ HURRICANE droughts, these effects are multiplied. 75-79 Hold elections but they are not free, fair, 75-79 and multiparty, and/or the government ACTIVITY 70-7470-74 does not guarantee freedom of speech 65-6965-69 and expression. 60-6460-64 0 2.5 55-5955-59 Increase in the hottest day 50-5450-54 5 temperature, Celsius 45-4945-49 Closed Autocracies 40-4440-44 Do not even hold multiparty 35-3935-39 elections for the chief executive. 30-3430-34 Increase in the longest annual 25-2925-29 drought by 2.5 days or more 20-2420-24 a Varieties of Democracy, 2020. The 15-1915-19 number of countries included in this 10-1410-14 study may not equal the number listed 5-95-9 separately under “Selected Regions Increase in major 0-40-4 and Countries. hurricane activity 12080400040801201208040004080120 f MillionMillion Data: Clemens Schwingshackl, Jana Sillman, and the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research. Graphic: Pardee Center University of Denver. abc United Nations Population Division. | Oxford Economics. | World Religion Database. 131