GLOBAL TRENDS2040 A MORE CONTESTED WORLD SOUTH ASIA a Internet Users (of population)c FIVE LARGEST CITIES By population in 2035 (million) b % GDP PER CAPITA 0 25.8 100 US$ at purchasing 2020 2040 2020 b 1 NEW DELHI, INDIA 43.3 power parity 2019 Digital skills of workforce ratingd TYPES OF READINESS FOR $5.9K $15.7K a 4.2 2 DHAKA, BANGLADESH 31.2 GOVERNMENTS DIGITAL ECONOMY 1 = not at all to a great extent = 7 Number of countries 3 MUMBAI, INDIA 27.3 c Information globalization ratinge RELIGION 0 72.2 Liberal Democracies 1 = low high = 100 4 KARACHI, PAKISTAN 23.1 2020 % % % % 56.4 32.1 4.1 3.0 Hold free and fair multiparty elections and guarantee freedom of speech and b 2019 or latest available data. 5 CALCUTTA, INDIA 19.6 2040 % % % % expression. Liberal democracies also c International Telecommunication Union. 53.9 34.3 4.8 2.4 uphold the rule of law and have d World Economic Forum. Hindu Muslim Christian Ethnic constraints on the executive. e KOF Globalization Index. Religion 4 Electoral Democracies f 2020 2040 This map illustrates likely changes in maximum temperature, a a Hold free and fair multiparty elections drought, and hurricane/cyclone activity in 2040—compared to AGE STRUCTURE AGE STRUCTURE and guarantee freedom of speech the 1980-2005 baseline—given conditions specified by the and expression, but do not uphold United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Under 15 15-64 65+ Under 15 15-64 65+ the rule of law and/or do not have (IPCC) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. constraints on the executive. 27.6% 66.3% 6.1% 21.8% 68.1% 10.1% While several different temperature measures could have been 2040 used, maximum temperature on the hottest day of the year was 4 TEMPERATURE, chosen given the severe human, agricultural, and economic costs MALE Age FEMALE MALE Age FEMALE Electoral Autocracies DROUGHT, AND associated with heat waves. When combined with longer 80+ 80+ HURRICANE droughts, these effects are multiplied. 75-79 Hold elections but they are not free, fair, 75-79 and multiparty, and/or the government ACTIVITY 70-74 70-74 does not guarantee freedom of speech 65-69 65-69 and expression. 60-64 60-64 0 2.5 55-59 55-59 Increase in the hottest day 50-54 50-54 0 temperature, Celsius 45-49 45-49 Closed Autocracies 40-44 40-44 Do not even hold multiparty 35-39 35-39 elections for the chief executive. 30-34 30-34 Increase in the longest annual 25-29 25-29 drought by 2.5 days or more 20-24 20-24 a Varieties of Democracy, 2020. The 15-19 15-19 number of countries included in this 10-14 10-14 study may not equal the number listed 5-9 5-9 separately under “Selected Regions Increase in major 0-4 0-4 and Countries. hurricane activity 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 Million Million f Data: Clemens Schwingshackl, Jana Sillman, and the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research. Graphic: Pardee Center University of Denver. a b c 132 United Nations Population Division. | Oxford Economics. | World Religion Database.