GLOBAL TRENDS2040 A MORE CONTESTED WORLD SOUTH ASIA a Internet Users (of population)c FIVE LARGEST CITIES By population in 2035 (million)b % GDP PER CAPITA 0 25.8 100 US$ at purchasing202020402020 b 1NEW DELHI, INDIA43.3power parity 2019 Digital skills of workforce ratingd TYPES OF READINESS FOR $5.9K$15.7K a 4.2 2DHAKA, BANGLADESH31.2GOVERNMENTS DIGITAL ECONOMY 1 = not at all to a great extent = 7 Number of countries 3MUMBAI, INDIA27.3c Information globalization ratinge RELIGION 0 72.2 Liberal Democracies 1 = low high = 100 4KARACHI, PAKISTAN23.12020%%%% 56.432.14.13.0Hold free and fair multiparty elections and guarantee freedom of speech and b 2019 or latest available data. 5CALCUTTA, INDIA19.62040%%%%expression. Liberal democracies also c International Telecommunication Union. 53.934.34.82.4uphold the rule of law and have d World Economic Forum. HinduMuslimChristianEthnicconstraints on the executive. e KOF Globalization Index. Religion 4 Electoral Democracies f 20202040 This map illustrates likely changes in maximum temperature, aa Hold free and fair multiparty elections drought, and hurricane/cyclone activity in 2040—compared to AGE STRUCTUREAGE STRUCTUREand guarantee freedom of speech the 1980-2005 baseline—given conditions specified by the and expression, but do not uphold United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Under 1515-6465+Under 1515-6465+the rule of law and/or do not have (IPCC) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. constraints on the executive. 27.6% 66.3% 6.1%21.8% 68.1% 10.1% While several different temperature measures could have been 2040 used, maximum temperature on the hottest day of the year was 4 TEMPERATURE, chosen given the severe human, agricultural, and economic costs MALEAge FEMALEMALEAgeFEMALEElectoral Autocracies DROUGHT, AND associated with heat waves. When combined with longer 80+80+ HURRICANE droughts, these effects are multiplied. 75-79 Hold elections but they are not free, fair, 75-79 and multiparty, and/or the government ACTIVITY 70-7470-74 does not guarantee freedom of speech 65-6965-69 and expression. 60-6460-64 0 2.5 55-5955-59 Increase in the hottest day 50-5450-54 0 temperature, Celsius 45-4945-49 Closed Autocracies 40-4440-44 Do not even hold multiparty 35-3935-39 elections for the chief executive. 30-3430-34 Increase in the longest annual 25-2925-29 drought by 2.5 days or more 20-2420-24 a Varieties of Democracy, 2020. The 15-1915-19 number of countries included in this 10-1410-14 study may not equal the number listed 5-95-9 separately under “Selected Regions Increase in major 0-40-4 and Countries. hurricane activity 100 80 60 40 20002040 60 80 100100 80 60 40 20002040 60 80 100 MillionMillion f Data: Clemens Schwingshackl, Jana Sillman, and the Centre for International Climate and Environmental Research. Graphic: Pardee Center University of Denver. abc United Nations Population Division. | Oxford Economics. | World Religion Database. 133