dynamics and relatively universal in scope, and because we can offer projections with a reasonable degree of con昀椀dence based on available data and evidence. The second sec- tion examines how these structural forces interact and intersect with other factors to affect emerging dynamics at three levels of analysis: individuals and society, states, and the inter- national system. The analysis in this section involves a higher degree of uncertainty because of the variability of human choices that will be made in the future. We focus on identifying and describing the key emerging dynamics at each level, including what is driving them and how they might evolve over time. Finally, the third section identi昀椀es several key uncer- tainties and uses these to create 昀椀ve future scenarios for the world in 2040. These scenarios are not intended to be predictions but to widen the aperture as to the possibilities, exploring various combinations of how the structural forces, emerging dynamics, and key uncertain- ties could play out. When exploring the long-term future, another challenge is choosing which issues to cov- er and emphasize, and which ones to leave out. We focused on global, long-term trends and dynamics that are likely to shape communities, states, and the international system for decades and to present them in a broader context. Accordingly, there is less on other near- term issues and crises. We offer this analysis with humility, knowing that invariably the future will unfold in ways that we have not foreseen. Although Global Trends is necessarily more speculative than most intelligence assessments, we rely on the fundamentals of our analytic tradecraft: we construct arguments that are grounded in data and appropriately caveated; we show our work and explain what we know and do not know; we consider alternative hypotheses and how we could be wrong; and we do not advocate policy positions or preferences. Global Trends re昀氀ects the National Intelligence Council’s perspective on these future trends; it does not represent the of昀椀cial, coordinated view of the US Intelligence Community nor US policy. We are proud to publish this report publicly for audiences around the world to read and consider. We hope that it serves as a useful resource and provokes a conversation about our collective future. Finally, a note of gratitude to colleagues on the National Intelligence Council and the wider Intelligence Community who joined in this journey to understand our world, explore the future, and draft this report. The Strategic Futures Group National Intelligence Council March 2021 vi GLOBAL TRENDS 2040