FFOREOREWWORDORD elcome to the 7th edition of the National Intelligence Council’s Global Trends report. Published every four years since 1997, Global Trends assesses the key Wtrends and uncertainties that will shape the strategic environment for the United States during the next two decades. Global Trends is designed to provide an analytic framework for policymakers early in each administration as they craft national security strategy and navigate an uncertain future. The goal is not to offer a speci昀椀c prediction of the world in 2040; instead, our intent is to help policymakers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures. Each edition of Global Trends is a unique undertaking, as its authors on the National Intel- ligence Council develop a methodology and formulate the analysis. This process involved numerous steps: examining and evaluating previous editions of Global Trends for lessons learned; research and discovery involving widespread consultations, data collection, and commissioned research; synthesizing, outlining, and drafting; and soliciting internal and ex- ternal feedback to revise and sharpen the analysis. A central component of the project has been our conversations with the world outside our security gates. We bene昀椀ted greatly from ongoing conversations with esteemed academ- ics and researchers across a range of disciplines, anchoring our study in the latest theories and data. We also broadened our contacts to hear diverse perspectives, ranging from high school students in Washington DC, to civil society organizations in Africa, to business lead- ers in Asia, to foresight practitioners in Europe and Asia, to environmental groups in South America. These discussions offered us new ideas and expertise, challenged our assump- tions, and helped us to identify and understand our biases and blind spots. One of the key challenges with a project of this breadth and magnitude is how to organize all the analysis into a story that is coherent, integrated, and forward looking. We constructed this report around two central organizing principles: identifying and assessing broad forces that are shaping the future strategic environment, and then exploring how populations and leaders will act on and respond to the forces. Based on those organizing principles, we built the analysis in three general sections. First, we explore structural forces in four core areas: demographics, environment, economics, and technology. We selected these areas because they are foundational in shaping future A MORE CONTESTED WORLD v Image / Bigstock