GEOPOLITICAL COMPETITION INTENSIFYING AI-POWERED PROPAGANDA Regional Powers Seeking The growth in global digital connectivity, immersive information Greater In昀氀uence In this competitive environment, regional pow- technology, and widely accessible digital marketing techniques ers, such as Australia, Brazil, Indonesia, Iran, opens the potential for greater information influence activities Nigeria, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the United against almost all societies. Arab Emirates (UAE), probably will seek to take Both states and nonstate actors almost certainly will be able to advantage of new opportunities and to take use these tools to influence populations, including by ratch- on roles previously 昀椀lled by a major power to eting up cognitive manipulation and societal polarization to shore up regional stability or gain in昀氀uence. shape how people receive, interpret, and act on information. This mix of regional powers seeking greater Countries, including China and Russia, are likely to apply roles and in昀氀uence is likely to change during technological innovations to make their information campaigns the next two decades, re昀氀ecting opportunities more agile, difficult to detect, and harder to combat, as they as well as the changing capabilities and leader- work to gain greater control over media content and means ship goals of various states. Regional powers of dissemination. probably will try to play major powers o昀昀 each other to maximize rewards while attempting Governments and nonstate actors are increasingly able to exploit consumer behavior data and marketing techniques to to avoid being drawn into unwanted con昀氀icts. They may seek to build their own coalitions microtarget messages to small audience segments. Propagan- or strengthen regional blocs to project in昀氀u- dists could leverage AI, the Internet of Things, and other tools ence and in some cases, collaborate on global to tailor communications to large audiences, anticipate their challenges, but in other cases they may act reactions, and adapt messaging in near real time. more aggressively in con昀氀icts in their region. Behavioral big data, which captures statistical patterns in Overcoming domestic governance challeng- human psychology and action, may also enable significant es, recovering quickly from the COVID-19 predictive power and capacity for personalized influence. If pandemic and other shocks, and managing meaningful regulation does not exist, public relations firms relationships with neighbors will be crucial for and political consultants can offer disinformation as a regular converting their key strengths into increased service, increasing public distrust in political institutions. in昀氀uence. Some probably will play crucial roles in tackling challenges at the regional level including nonstate actor security threats, ter- rorism, mass migration, and digital privacy. can shape or constrain state actions through Nonstate Actors Powerful, In昀氀uential lobbying leaders and mobilizing citizens. The Nonstate actors, such as NGOs, religious in昀氀uence of nonstate actors will vary and be groups, and technology superstar 昀椀rms, will subject to government intervention. China, the have the resources and global reach to build EU, and others are already moving to regu- and promote alternative networks that com- late or break up superstar 昀椀rms, while Beijing plement, compete with, or possibly bypass is trying to control or suppress NGOs and states. In the past several decades, nonstate religious organizations. Many nonstate actors actors and transnational movements have are likely to try to push back on state e昀昀orts used growing international connections for to consolidate sovereignty in newer frontiers, collective action or to in昀氀uence populations including cyberspace and space. around the world. In some cases, these actors A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 97