of the population in 2000 to 52.1 percent in messages. Between 2014 and 2020, 2018—equivalent to approximately 686 million the number of people worldwide using people who are better positioned to make the Internet grew from 3 billion to 4.54 demands on their government. billion. Mobile Internet penetration is • Publics in most of the world have projected to increase from 49 percent in grown more prosperous and educated 2019 to 60.5 percent globally by 2025. during the past several decades, and An estimated 800 million more people the corresponding reduction in peo- will begin using social media platforms ple’s preoccupation with immediate during the next 昀椀ve years, up from 3.6 needs has facilitated a wider scope of billion people in 2020. awareness and ambition. With greater As people become better equipped and prosperity, people will have more free connected, the intensity of their demands on time, higher expectations, and better governments is likely to grow in every region. access to the tools for participation, as With higher expectations but more vulnerable well as increasing concerns about losing conditions, people’s demands on governments what they have achieved, which is likely for solutions to growing challenges could be- to increase the intensity of political par- come more varied, contradictory, and di昀케cult ticipation during the next two decades. to address. These demands are likely to range • Additionally, the growth in urban across economic, political, and social issues, populations in the coming decades will with various groups pressing for con昀氀icting be most pronounced in parts of the policies—such as protecting key industries developing world that also struggle versus reducing greenhouse gas emissions. with the capacity to deliver services and Even in countries with strong democracies, are host to high percentages of young people are likely to turn to mass protests, people, including Africa and South Asia. boycotts, civil disobedience, and even violence Urbanization is creating concentrated with increasing frequency, judging from the populations with shared interests and rise in public protests during the past decade. grievances—the raw ingredients fueling Along with social media, these also will be social movements that can quickly spiral the preferred ways to make voices heard in into protests. authoritarian countries. During the next two • The proliferation of communication decades, these multiple paths for channeling technologies is raising real-time aware- discontent are likely to present an increasing- ness of international trends and events ly potent force with a mix of implications for social cohesion. on the ground and o昀昀ering people the tools to organize and spread their A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 77 Markus Spiske / Unsplash