have reduced protections for women, . . . And in Con昀氀ict The expansion and increasing prominence including decriminalizing domestic and of identity groups demanding recognition sexual violence. and rights are forcing an increase in debate about the social and economic foundations of INFORMATION ENVIRONMENT CONNECTING, societies. Intensifying and competing identity CONFUSING, AND DIVIDING dynamics are likely to provoke increasing polit- The exponential growth of the hypercon- ical debate and polarization, societal divisions, nected information environment is likely to and in some cases, unrest and violence. strengthen and further complicate identity • Increasing numbers of immigrants, allegiance and societal dynamics. Social media, refugees, and guest workers in many in particular, makes it easier for people to af- countries, such as middle-income 昀椀liate with others around the world who share countries in Southeast and Central common characteristics, views, and beliefs. Europe, are prompting heated debates Moreover, social media can create echo cham- about national identity and citizenship bers of like-minded users who share informa- and leading to the emergence of ethnic tion that con昀椀rms their existing worldviews nationalist political parties, greater de- and limits their understanding of alternative mands for assimilationist policies, and a perspectives. decline in support for migrants globally. Over time, this dynamic is increasing aware- • The growing recognition and support ness of and building new connections between for LGBTQ rights are prompting re- previously isolated groups, while also polar- sponses from people in countries in ev- izing people’s perceptions of policies, public ery region, such as Brazil, Iran, Nigeria, institutions, events, moral issues, and societal and Poland, where some people per- trends. Such polarization will lead to a prolifer- ation of competing, entrenched perspectives, ceive such movements as an a昀昀ront to limiting opportunities for compromise and their deeply held beliefs and corrosive to their societies. Political and religious decreasing societal cohesion. leaders in some countries are advocat- During the next 20 years, the algorithms and ing laws restricting LGBTQ rights and social media platforms that curate and distill criminalizing homosexuality. massive amounts of data will produce content • In most countries, progress toward that could overtake expertise in shaping the gender equality has been substantial, political and social e昀昀ects engendered by a including improving education, health- hyperconnected information environment. Power increasingly will be wielded by the care, job opportunities, and leadership roles, but even in longstanding de- generators of content as well as the arbiters mocracies, resentment and pushback of who gets to see it. Social media platforms remain. The global #MeToo movement will reinforce identity groups, or foster new shed light on the breadth of sexual and unanticipated groupings, and accelerate harassment and sexual assault that and amplify natural tendencies to associate occurs across the world, but still several with people who share the same views, often countries, such as Hungary and Russia, engendering competing visions of the truth 74 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040 Photo / Bigstock