GROWTH IN MOBILE DIGITAL COMMUNICATION about an issue. The platforms will make it eas- ier for competing opinion leaders—including from marginalized groups—to publish their 2025 views and debate among themselves, honing the cohesiveness and “market appeal” of their 5.8B 5.0B messages. This e昀昀ect is magni昀椀ed because people rely on their own identity communities for information and piggyback on the knowl- edge of others. People will also use social identities such as 2019 culture, ethnicity, nationality, and religion as 5.2B 3.8B critical 昀椀lters for managing information over- load, potentially further fragmenting national identities and undermining trust in govern- ment. These identities provide a sense of be- longing and reinforce norms about how group 2016 4.8B 2.0B members should behave, rules about whom to trust, and beliefs about complex issues. Identity-based violence, including hate and po- UNIQUE MOBILE litical crimes, may increasingly be facilitated by MOBILE INTERNET social media. In India, social media and mobile SUBSCRIBERS USERS messaging platforms have become a key force behind viral falsehoods, such as rumors that Source: Global System for Mobile Communications Association. quickly spread among some Hindus regarding Muslims’ alleged slaughter of cows or posses- sion of beef, which led to the “cow vigilante” lynching of Muslims. Publics increasingly will depend on their favorite gatekeepers—such as news media outlets, social media platforms, and trusted voices of authority—to sift truth from 昀椀ction. E昀昀orts to arbitrate controversial content, such as 昀氀agging or removing demonstrably false claims, are unlikely to be e昀昀ective in changing beliefs and values aligned with one’s closely held identities, however. Identity-based beliefs tend to eclipse truth-seeking because of the overriding need to belong, obtain status, understand the social world, maintain dignity, and feel morally justi昀椀ed. A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 75 Photo / Bigstock