hile populations are Wexercising more potent public voices, governments tively, these pressures will test states’ capacity and resilience, deplete budgets, and add to will experience mounting the complexity of governing. pressure from economic Demographics and Human Development. Many countries will struggle to build on or constraints and a mix of even sustain the human development suc- cesses achieved in the past several decades demographic, environmental, because of setbacks from the ongoing global pandemic, slower global economic growth, and other challenges. the e昀昀ects of con昀氀ict and climate, and more di昀케cult steps required to meet higher de- velopment goals. Meanwhile, countries with GROWING MISMATCH BETWEEN PUBLIC DEMANDS aging populations and those with youthful and AND GOVERNMENT CAPABILITIES growing populations will each face unique sets Over the next two decades, the relationships of challenges associated with those demo- between states and their societies in every graphics. Migration is likely to increase the region are likely to face persistent tensions salience of identity issues that divide societies because of a growing mismatch between what in receiving countries and may fuel ethnic con- publics need or expect and what governments 昀氀icts. Rapid urbanization—occurring mostly in can or are willing to deliver. In many countries, Africa and Asia—will stress governments’ abili- populations with expectations heightened by ty to provide adequate infrastructure, security, previous prosperity are likely to face greater and resources for these growing cities. strains and disruptions from slowing eco- Responding to Climate Change and Environ- nomic growth, uncertain job opportunities, mental Degradation will strain governments and changing demographics. These popula- in every region. The impact will be partic- tions also will be better equipped to advocate ularly acute in Africa, Asia, and the Middle for their interests after decades of steady East, where governments are already weak, improvements in education and access to stressed, or fragile. Wealthy countries will also communication technologies as well as the increasingly face environmental costs and greater coherence of like-minded groups. even disasters that challenge governments’ Although trust in government institutions is responsiveness and resources, potentially low among the mass public, people are likely undermining public trust. to continue to view the state as ultimately Economic Constraints. The expected trend responsible for addressing their challenges, of slowing economic growth is likely to strain and to demand more from their governments the resources and capacity of governments to deliver solutions. to provide services. Governments are already While populations are exercising more potent saddled with debt on an unprecedented scale. public voices, governments will experience In addition, rising or persistent inequality mounting pressure from economic constraints within many states, coupled with corruption, and a mix of demographic, environmental, will threaten people’s faith in government and and other challenges. Individually and collec- trust in one another. 80 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040