by public-private partnerships in the United tion and technological innovation make global States and other democratic societies are problems manageable over the near term for transforming the global economy, raising advanced economies, but longer term climate incomes, and improving the quality of life for challenges remain. millions around the globe. The rising tide of In Separate Silos, the world is fragmented economic growth and technological achieve- into several economic and security blocs of ment enables responses to global challenges, varying size and strength, centered on the eases societal divisions, and renews public United States, China, the European Union trust in democratic institutions. In contrast, (EU), Russia, and a couple of regional powers; years of increasing societal controls and these blocs are focused on self-su昀케ciency, monitoring in China and Russia have sti昀氀ed innovation as leading scientists and entrepre- resiliency, and defense. Information 昀氀ows neurs have sought asylum in the United States within separate cyber-sovereign enclaves, and Europe. supply chains are reoriented, and internation- al trade is disrupted. Vulnerable developing In A World Adrift, the international system countries are caught in the middle with some is directionless, chaotic, and volatile as in- on the verge of becoming failed states. Global ternational rules and institutions are largely problems, notably climate change, are spottily ignored by major powers like China, regional addressed, if at all. players, and nonstate actors. Organization In Tragedy and Mobilization, a global coa- for Economic Cooperation and Development lition, led by the EU and China working with (OECD) countries are plagued by slower eco- nongovernmental organizations and revital- nomic growth, widening societal divisions, and ized multilateral institutions, is implementing political paralysis. China is taking advantage of far-reaching changes designed to address cli- the West’s troubles to expand its international mate change, resource depletion, and poverty in昀氀uence, especially in Asia, but Beijing lacks following a global food catastrophe caused the will and military might to take on global by climate events and environmental degra- leadership, leaving many global challenges, dation. Richer countries shift to help poorer such as climate change and instability in devel- ones manage the crisis and then transition oping countries, largely unaddressed. to low carbon economies through broad aid In Competitive Coexistence, the United programs and transfers of advanced energy States and China have prioritized economic technologies, recognizing how rapidly these growth and restored a robust trading rela- global challenges spread across borders. tionship, but this economic interdependence exists alongside competition over political in昀氀uence, governance models, technological dominance, and strategic advantage. The risk of major war is low, and international coopera- A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 9