large segments of the global population are economic growth, environmental conditions, becoming wary of institutions and govern- and technology, as well as hardening divisions ments that they see as unwilling or unable to over governance models, are likely to further address their needs. People are gravitating to ratchet up competition between China and familiar and like-minded groups for communi- a Western coalition led by the United States. ty and security, including ethnic, religious, and Rival powers will jockey to shape global norms, cultural identities as well as groupings around rules, and institutions, while regional powers interests and causes, such as environmental- and nonstate actors may exert more in昀氀uence ism. The combination of newly prominent and and lead on issues left unattended by the diverse identity allegiances and a more siloed major powers. These highly varied interactions information environment is exposing and ag- are likely to produce a more con昀氀ict-prone gravating fault lines within states, undermining and volatile geopolitical environment, under- civic nationalism, and increasing volatility. mine global multilateralism, and broaden the At the state level, the relationships between mismatch between transnational challenges societies and their governments in every and institutional arrangements to tackle them. region are likely to face persistent strains and ALTERNATIVE SCENARIOS FOR 2040 tensions because of a growing mismatch be- Human responses to these core drivers and tween what publics need and expect and what emerging dynamics will determine how the governments can and will deliver. Populations world evolves during the next two decades. Of in every region are increasingly equipped with the many uncertainties about the future, we the tools, capacity, and incentive to agitate explored three key questions around condi- for their preferred social and political goals and to place more demands on their govern- tions within speci昀椀c regions and countries and the policy choices of populations and leaders ments to 昀椀nd solutions. At the same time that that will shape the global environment. From populations are increasingly empowered and demanding more, governments are coming these questions, we constructed 昀椀ve scenarios under greater pressure from new challenges for alternative worlds in the year 2040. and more limited resources. This widening • How severe are the looming global gap portends more political volatility, erosion challenges? of democracy, and expanding roles for alter- • How do states and nonstate actors en- native providers of governance. Over time, gage in the world, including focus and these dynamics might open the door to more type of engagement? signi昀椀cant shifts in how people govern. • Finally, what do states prioritize for In the international system, no single state the future? is likely to be positioned to dominate across In Renaissance of Democracies, the world is all regions or domains, and a broader range of in the midst of a resurgence of open democ- actors will compete to shape the international racies led by the United States and its allies. system and achieve narrower goals. Acceler- Rapid technological advancements fostered ating shifts in military power, demographics, 8 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040