extreme storms, droughts, and 昀氀oods; melting many economic, human development, and glaciers and ice caps; and rising sea levels will other challenges. accompany rising temperatures. The impact Technology will o昀昀er the potential to mitigate will disproportionately fall on the developing problems, such as climate change and disease, world and poorer regions and intersect with environmental degradation to create new and to create new challenges, such as job vulnerabilities and exacerbate existing risks displacement. Technologies are being invent- to economic prosperity, food, water, health, ed, used, spread, and then discarded at ever and energy security. Governments, societies, increasing speeds around the world, and new and the private sector are likely to expand centers of innovation are emerging. During adaptation and resilience measures to man- the next two decades, the pace and reach age existing threats, but these measures are of technological developments are likely to unlikely to be evenly distributed, leaving some increase ever faster, transforming a range of populations behind. Debates will grow over human experiences and capabilities while also how and how quickly to reach net zero green- creating new tensions and disruptions within house gas emissions. and between societies, industries, and states. State and nonstate rivals will vie for leadership During the next two decades, several global and dominance in science and technology with economic trends, including rising national potentially cascading risks and implications for debt, a more complex and fragmented trading economic, military, and societal security. environment, a shift in trade, and new employ- ment disruptions are likely to shape conditions EMERGING DYNAMICS within and between states. Many governments These structural forces, along with other may 昀椀nd they have reduced 昀氀exibility as they factors, will intersect and interact at the levels navigate greater debt burdens, diverse trading of societies, states, and the international rules, and a broader array of powerful state system, creating opportunities as well as chal- and corporate actors exerting in昀氀uence. Large lenges for communities, institutions, corpo- platform corporations—which provide online rations, and governments. These interactions markets for large numbers of buyers and sell- are also likely to produce greater contestation er—could drive continued trade globalization at all levels than has been seen since the end and help smaller 昀椀rms grow and gain access of the Cold War, re昀氀ecting di昀昀ering ideolo- to international markets. These powerful 昀椀rms gies as well as contrasting views on the most are likely to try to exert in昀氀uence in political e昀昀ective way to organize society and tackle and social arenas, e昀昀orts that may lead gov- emerging challenges. ernments to impose new restrictions. Asian Within societies, there is increasing fragmen- economies appear poised to continue decades tation and contestation over economic, cultur- of growth through at least 2030, although po- al, and political issues. Decades of steady gains tentially slower. They are unlikely to reach the in prosperity and other aspects of human de- per capita gross domestic product (GDP) or velopment have improved lives in every region economic in昀氀uence of existing advanced econ- and raised peoples’ expectations for a better omies, including the United States and Europe. future. As these trends plateau and combine Productivity growth remains a key variable; an with rapid social and technological changes, increase in the rate of growth could alleviate A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 7 Image / Bigstock