INTRODUCTION Executive Summary STRUCTURAL FORCES SETTING America, South Asia, and the Middle East and THE PARAMETERS North Africa bene昀椀t from larger working-age Trends in demographics and human develop- populations, o昀昀ering opportunities for a de- ment, environment, economics, and technology mographic dividend if coupled with improve- are laying the foundation and constructing the ments in infrastructure and skills. Human bounds of our future world. In some areas, development, including health, education, these trends are becoming more intense, such and household prosperity, has made historic as changes in our climate, the concentration improvements in every region during the past of people in urban areas, and the emergence few decades. Many countries will struggle to of new technologies. Trends in other areas are build on and even sustain these successes. Past more uncertain—gains in human development improvements focused on the basics of health, and economic growth are likely to slow and may education, and poverty reduction, but the next even reverse in some areas, although a mix of levels of development are more di昀케cult and factors could change this trajectory. The conver- face headwinds from the COVID-19 pandem- ic, potentially slower global economic growth, gence of these trends will o昀昀er opportunities for innovation but also will leave some communities aging populations, and the e昀昀ects of con昀氀ict and states struggling to cope and adapt. Even and climate. These factors will challenge gov- apparent progress, such as new and advanced ernments seeking to provide the education and technologies, will be disruptive to many people’s infrastructure needed to improve the produc- lives and livelihoods, leaving them feeling inse- tivity of their growing urban middle classes in a cure and forcing adaptation. 21st century economy. As some countries rise to these challenges and others fall short, shifting The most certain trends during the next 20 global demographic trends almost certainly will years will be major demographic shifts as aggravate disparities in economic opportunity global population growth slows and the world within and between countries during the next rapidly ages. Some developed and emerging two decades as well as create more pressure for economies, including in Europe and East Asia, and disputes over migration. will grow older faster and face contracting In the environment, the physical e昀昀ects of populations, weighing on economic growth. In climate change are likely to intensify during the contrast, some developing countries in Latin next two decades, especially in the 2030s. More 6 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040