GLOBAL TRENDS OVERVIEW ENVIRONMENT ECONOMICS TECHNOLOGY Climate change will increasingly ex- Several global economic trends, The pace and reach of technolog- acerbate risks to human and national including rising national debt, a more ical developments will increase, security and force states to make hard complex and fragmented trading transforming human experiences choices and tradeo昀昀s. The burdens environment, the global spread of and capabilities while creating new will be unevenly distributed, height- trade in services, new employment tensions and disruptions for all ac- ening competition, contributing to disruptions, and the continued rise tors. Global competition for the core instability, straining military readiness, of powerful 昀椀rms, are shaping condi- elements of technology supremacy and encouraging political movements. tions within and between states. Calls will increase. Spin o昀昀 technolo- for more planning and regulation will gies and applications will enable intensify, particularly of large platform, rapid adoption. e-commerce corporations. STATE INTERNATIONAL Governments will face mounting pres- Power in the international system sures from the combination of economic will evolve to include a broader set of constraints; demographic, environmen- sources, but no single state is likely to tal, and other challenges; and more be positioned to dominate across all empowered populations. A growing gap regions or domains. The United States between public demands and what gov- and China will have the greatest in昀氀u- ernments can deliver will raise tensions, ence on global dynamics, forcing starker increase political volatility, and threaten choices on other actors, increasing democracy. The mismatch may also jockeying over global norms, rules, and spur new or shifting sources and models institutions, and heightening the risk of of governance. interstate con昀氀ict. A WORLD ADRIFT COMPETITIVE SEPARATE SILOS TRAGEDY AND COEXISTENCE MOBILIZATION The international system is The United States and China The world is fragmented A global coalition, led by the EU directionless, chaotic, and have prioritized economic into several economic and and China working with NGOs volatile as international rules growth and restored a robust security blocs of varying size and revitalized multilateral and institutions are largely trading relationship, but this and strength, centered on institutions, is implementing ignored. OECD countries are economic interdependence the United States, China, the far-reaching changes designed to plagued by slower economic exists alongside competition EU, Russia, and a few region- address climate change, resource growth, widening societal di- over political in昀氀uence, gover- al powers, and focused on depletion, and poverty following visions, and political paralysis. nance models, technological self-su昀케ciency, resiliency, and a global food catastrophe caused China is taking advantage of dominance, and strategic defense. Information 昀氀ows by climate events and environ- the West’s troubles to expand advantage. The risk of major within separate cyber-sover- mental degradation. Richer its international in昀氀uence. war is low, and international eign enclaves, supply chains countries shift to help poorer Many global challenges cooperation and technolog- are reoriented, and interna- ones manage the crisis and then are unaddressed. ical innovation make global tional trade is disrupted. Vul- transition to low carbon econ- problems manageable. nerable developing countries omies through broad aid pro- are caught in the middle. grams and transfers of advanced energy technologies. A MORE CONTESTED WORLD 5 Image / Bigstock | Bagir Bahana / Unsplash