his edition of Global Trends STRUCTURAL FORCES Tconstructs its analysis of the future DEMOGRAPHICS AND HUMAN DEVELOPMENT in several stages. Slowing global population growth and a rising median age will help some devel- oping economies, but rapidly aging and First, we examine structural forces in contracting populations will weigh on many developed economies. Decades demographics, environment, economics, of progress in education, health, and poverty reduction will be di昀케cult to and technology that shape the contours build on or even sustain. Pressure for migration is likely to increase. of our future world. Second, we analyze how these structural forces and other factors—combined EMERGING DYNAMICS SOCIETAL with human responses—a昀昀ect emerging Many populations are increasingly pessi- dynamics in societies, states, and the mistic and distrustful as they struggle to deal with disruptive economic, techno- international system. logical, and demographic trends. Newly prominent identities, resurgent established allegiances, and a siloed information en- vironment are exposing fault lines within Third, we envision 昀椀ve plausible scenarios communities and states, undermining civic for the distant future in 2040. nationalism, and increasing volatility. Popu- lations are more informed and have greater The key themes discussed previously ability to express their demands. appear across these sections. SCENARIOS FOR 2040 RENAISSANCE OF DEMOCRACIES The world is in the midst of a resurgence of open democracies led by the United States and its allies. Rapid technological advancements fostered by public-private partnerships in the United States and other democratic societies are transform- ing the global economy, raising incomes, and improving the quality of life for millions around the globe. In contrast, years of increasing societal controls and monitoring in China and Russia have sti昀氀ed innovation. 4 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040