FIVE THEMES APPEAR THROUGHOUT system. Paradoxically, as the world has grown THIS REPORT AND UNDERPIN THIS more connected through communications technology, trade, and the movement of OVERALL THESIS. people, that very connectivity has divided and fragmented people and countries. The hyper- GLOBAL CHALLENGES connected information environment, greater First, shared global challenges—in- urbanization, and interdependent economies cluding climate change, disease, 昀椀nancial mean that most aspects of daily life, including crises, and technology disruptions—are likely 昀椀nances, health, and housing, will be more to manifest more frequently and intensely connected all the time. The Internet of Things in almost every region and country. These encompassed 10 billion devices in 2018 and challenges—which often lack a direct human is projected to reach 64 billion by 2025 and agent or perpetrator—will produce wide- possibly many trillions by 2040, all monitored spread strains on states and societies as well in real time. In turn, this connectivity will help as shocks that could be catastrophic. The produce new e昀케ciencies, conveniences, and ongoing COVID-19 pandemic marks the most advances in living standards. However, it will signi昀椀cant, singular global disruption since also create and exacerbate tensions at all lev- World War II, with health, economic, political, els, from societies divided over core values and and security implications that will ripple for goals to regimes that employ digital repression years to come. The e昀昀ects of climate change to control populations. As these connections and environmental degradation are likely to deepen and spread, they are likely to grow in- exacerbate food and water insecurity for poor creasingly fragmented along national, cultural, countries, increase migration, precipitate new or political preferences. In addition, people are health challenges, and contribute to biodi- likely to gravitate to information silos of people versity losses. Novel technologies will appear who share similar views, reinforcing beliefs and di昀昀use faster and faster, disrupting jobs, and understanding of the truth. Meanwhile, industries, communities, the nature of power, globalization is likely to endure but transform and what it means to be human. Continued as economic and production networks shift pressure for global migration—as of 2020 and diversify. All together, these forces por- more than 270 million persons were living in tend a world that is both inextricably bound a country to which they have migrated, 100 by connectivity and fragmenting in di昀昀erent million more than in 2000—will strain both directions. origin and destination countries to manage the 昀氀ow and e昀昀ects. These challenges will intersect DISEQUILIBRIUM and cascade, including in ways that are di昀케cult The scale of transnational challenges, to anticipate. National security will require not and the emerging implications of fragmen- only defending against armies and arsenals but tation, are exceeding the capacity of existing also withstanding and adapting to these shared systems and structures, highlighting the third global challenges. theme: disequilibrium. There is an increasing mismatch at all levels between challenges and FRAGMENTATION needs with the systems and organizations to Second, the di昀케culty of addressing deal with them. The international system—in- these transnational challenges is compounded cluding the organizations, alliances, rules, and in part by increasing fragmentation within norms—is poorly set up to address the com- communities, states, and the international pounding global challenges facing populations. 2 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040 Images / Bigstock