Goldman Sachs GS SUSTAIN: ESG of the Future We note there are multiple limitations to our analysis which is why we view the work as a starting point. Our focus only goes through 2025 as most of our analyst teams earnings models do not extend later. Much of the emissions intensity and potential absolute emissions reductions to meet Net Zero pathways are expected to accelerate beyond 2025, beyond where our analysts make annual financial forecasts. We note for those looking beyond 2025, our colleagues Carbonomics report in October 2021 focused on management teams long-term targets for emissions and implied emissions pathways for select companies to meet targets in select sectors. Additionally, our analysis focuses on Scope 1+2 emissions and not emissions by consumers/suppliers (Scope 3). As we highlight, overall corporate Scope 1 emissions from companies in all sectors in our GS SUSTAIN universe represents a minority of total global emissions as emissions from individuals, governments and privately-held companies are not included. Exhibit 1: All key sectors included in our analysis are forecast to have emissions intensities on the decline by 2025E vs. 2019 — Electric Utilities are forecast to see the largest decrease Change in absolute emissions and emissions intensities for key sectors in our analysis by 2025E vs. 2019 GS SUSTAIN Sector Change in absolute emissions in 2025E vs. Change in Emissions Intensities in 2025E 2019 vs. 2019 Airlines 9% -5% Aluminum -8% -14% Chemicals 10% -12% Construction Materials 2% -12% Diversified Mining & Metals -6% -14% Oil & Gas Producers -8% -16% Oil Refiners -10% -10% Steel -3% -8% Utilities - Electric -17% -20% Total -9% -15% Emissions intensities are calculated dividing Scope 1+2 emissions (Scope 1 only for Electric Utilities) by the corresponding activity metric as speci“ed in our Energy teams Carbonomics reports. Total emissions intensity change is a weighted average calculated on a market cap-basis for companies included in our analysis. Source: Company data, FactSet, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research
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