Goldman Sachs GS SUSTAIN: ESG of the Future Exhibit 2: We see aggregate Scope 1 emissions from seven key sectors flattish with 2020 levels through 2025, down vs. pre-pandemic levels Sector breakdown for Scope 1 emissions from corporates included in our analysis. 4.0 Airlines 3.5 Chemicals tted3.0 Utilities eq emi2.5 -2.0 CO2 Oil & Gas 1.5 Metals & Gton of 1.0 Mining Steel 0.5 Construction 0.0 Materials 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E As not all analysts model through 2025, 2024E and 2025E reflect the weighted average yoy change for companies where the covering analysts have submitted data. The same applies for 2019 and 2020 weighted average estimates. Sectors as de“ned in our GS SUSTAIN sector classi“cation. Source: Company data, Thomson Reuters, Bloomberg, Goldman Sachs Global Investment Research Implications for stocks: Finding ESG Improvers We believe that over time ESG investors will look more towards impact themes and there will be rising willingness to invest in ESG Improvers — companies that may not traditionally have scored well on ESG metrics but where there could be recognition for a significant improvement towards Sustainable Development Goals. It is for this reason we have worked with our analysts to quantify improvement. While there are ultimately many different ways to measure improvement, in our ESG of the Future reports, we have focused on: n Green Revenue and Green Capex: Companies with rising or high and rising percentages of Green Capex or Green Revenue as a percentage of the total. In our November 2021 ESG of the Future report, we introduced stock-specific estimates for Green Revenue and Green Capex mix for 19 sectors key in the Green Capex mosaic. Our takeaway was that we see the Green Capex and Green Revenue mix rising at a rate of about 1.0-1.5 percentage points per year. n Greenhouse Gas emissions: Companies that are meaningfully lowering their emissions intensity. In this report, we introduce analysts estimates for Scope 1 and Scope 1+2 annual greenhouse gas emissions for companies in 7 high-emitting sectors with a goal of assessing direction of overall corporate emissions but also in identifying companies helping to advance decarbonization goals by lowering their own emissions footprint on an intensity basis.
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