Goldman Sachs GS SUSTAIN: ESG of the Future Emissions intensity projected paths through 2025 by sector vs. Carbonomics Net Zero carbon models We believe investors will focus on both the absolute direction of emissions in a sector but also the emissions intensity. We believe companies with the greatest emissions intensity reductions may receive greater favor, particularly if their intensity reductions are consistent with a pathway to 1.5 degree or lower implied temperature rise. In 2021, our EMEA energy research team in its Carbonomics reports introduced three global sectoral paths to Net Zero carbon with global models of decarbonization by sector and technology leveraging its Carbonomics cost curve. n The GS 1.5° scenario is consistent with a 1.5°C global temperature rise. This scenario implies reaching global net zero carbon by 2050, thus with limited temperature overshoot. For this scenario, our Carbonomics team assumed a carbon budget for remaining net cumulative CO emissions from all sources from 2020 to be c.500 GtCO , in line with 2 2 1 the IPCC AR6 WGI Summary for Policymakers , and consistent with a 50% probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C by 2100. n The GS <2.0° „ or the “Paris AgreementŽ „ scenario is consistent with a rise well below 2.0°C. This scenario would be consistent with the aim outlined in Paris Agreement to keep global warming well below 2°C and achieve global net zero around 2060. For the purpose of this analysis, our Carbonomics team defined the cumulative remaining carbon budget for our GS <2.0° model to be 750 GtCO , consistent with around 1.65°C global warming with 50% probability. 2 n The GS 2.0° scenario is consistent with a 2.0°C temperature rises. This aims for global carbon neutrality by 2070 — and leads to a 50% probability of 2.0°C global warming to 2100. It has a cumulative carbon budget from 2020 of 1,350 1 GtCO , in line with the carbon budgets outlined in the IPCC AR6 WGI Summary for Policymakers . 2 Below, we detail percentage changes in emissions intensities by sector through 2025 based on our analysts Scope 1+2 forecasts, plotted against the percentage reductions by sector implied by our energy teams Carbonomics research for the three scenarios above. 1 IPCC, 2021: Summary for Policymakers. In: Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [MassonDelmotte, V., P. Zhai, A. Pirani, S.L. Connors, C. Péan, S. Berger, N. Caud, Y. Chen, L. Goldfarb, M.I. Gomis, M. Huang, K. Leitzell, E. Lonnoy, J.B.R. Matthews, T.K. Maycock, T. Waterfield, O. Yelekçi, R. Yu, and B. Zhou (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. In Press
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