Goldman Sachs GS SUSTAIN: ESG of the Future Aluminum Among Metals & Mining companies, we break out the Aluminum sector using estimates for 9 companies, globally. Those comprise 4 companies in Americas, 2 in Europe and 3 in Asia Pacific. We received GHG emissions estimates from our analysts for 5 of the 9 companies. We calculate GHG emissions intensities for the Aluminum sectors dividing Scope 1+2 CO-eq emissions (in tons) by the amount of aluminum produced in a given year (in tons). This is in-line with our colleagues 2 Carbonomics work. We estimate Scope 1+2 emissions intensities in the Aluminum sector will decline by about 14% by 2025E vs. 2019. Our analysis indicates Scope 1+2 GHG intensities declining consistently within 2021-2025E (2%-4% YoY), and by 14% in 2025E vs. 2019 levels. Please see Exhibit 25 for more details. We note this is due to a combination of absolute emissions reduction in the sector (declining at a 1% CAGR between 2019 and 2025E) and an increase in production throughput (rising at 1% CAGR through 2025E) — see Exhibit 26. The reduction in Scope 1+2 emissions intensities is primarily driven by European and Chinese Aluminum manufacturers (whose Scope 1+2 intensities are estimated to decline by 13%-21% by 2025E vs. 2019). Why we believe this will matter for investors. We highlighted Aluminum as a key Greenabler — i.e., a sector for which investments are needed more urgently and timely due to long lead-times in capacity expansions — in our Green Capex report. In our view, aluminum will be needed/critical across the majority of verticals in the Green Capex mosaic. We note that our Commodities analysts are bullish on the outlook for Aluminum, on the back of rising demand for “Green” end-uses, among other drivers — now estimated to rise from below 3,000 kton in 2021 to almost 7,000 kton in 2025E. Investment Implications. While metals and mining stocks broadly are underweight in ESG funds vs. respective benchmarks (as seen in Exhibit 18), the Aluminum sector specifically (based on GICS 4 classification) is 55% overweight. We see potential for further room for appreciation of its critical role on path to Net Zero, Clean Water and Infrastructure goals among ESG investors — particularly for companies that can successfully decarbonize their operations in coming years.