ING global economic outlook 2023 December 2022 ING global forecasts 2022 2023 2024 2025 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 FY 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 FY 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 FY 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 FY United States GDP (% QoQ, ann) -1.6 -0.6 2.9 2.1 2.0 -0.9 -2.3 -0.6 1.4 0.1 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 CPI headline (% YoY) 8.0 8.6 8.3 7.4 8.1 5.9 3.8 2.9 2.2 3.7 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.1 Federal funds (%, eop) 0.50 1.75 3.25 4.50 4.50 5.00 5.00 4.50 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.75 3.00 3.00 3.00 3-month interest rate (%, 0.65 2.1 3.5 4.6 4.6 4.9 4.75 4.3 3.75 3.75 3.25 2.75 2.4 2.45 2.45 2.5 2.7 2.9 2.9 2.9 eop) 10-year interest rate (%, 2.40 3.00 3.75 3.75 3.75 4.00 3.75 3.25 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.25 3.25 3.50 3.50 3.50 3.75 3.75 4.00 4.00 eop) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -4.2 -4.7 -3.9 -3.4 Gross public debt / GDP 99.9 100.9 101.3 100.6 Eurozone GDP (% QoQ, ann) 2.7 3.1 0.8 -1.6 3.2 -2.1 0.2 0.9 0.7 -0.3 0.8 1.5 1.8 1.4 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 CPI headline (% YoY) 6.0 8.0 9.3 10.2 8.4 8.4 6.4 4.9 3.7 6.0 2.9 2.6 2.0 1.5 2.3 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.1 2.0 Refi minimum bid rate (%, 0.00 0.00 1.25 2.50 2.50 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 2.75 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 2.50 eop) 3-month interest rate (%, -0.45 -0.35 1.17 2.20 1.90 2.70 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.60 2.70 2.70 2.50 2.50 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.50 2.50 eop) 10-year interest rate (%, 0.60 1.40 2.10 1.90 1.90 2.00 1.80 1.70 1.80 1.80 1.90 2.00 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.50 eop) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -4.5 -4.6 -3.5 -3.4 Gross public debt/GDP 98.7 98.4 96.2 96.2 Japan GDP (% QoQ, ann) 0.2 4.6 -1.2 3.2 1.5 0.4 0.4 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 CPI headline (% YoY) 0.9 2.4 2.9 3.8 2.5 3.5 2.8 2.1 0.8 2.3 0.6 0.6 0.9 1.4 0.9 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 Interest Rate on Excess -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 -0.10 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Reserves (%) 3-month interest rate (%, 0.00 -0.04 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 -0.01 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 0.10 eop) 10-year interest rate (%, 0.25 0.20 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.20 0.20 0.20 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 0.30 eop) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -7 -7 -6 -6 Gross public debt/GDP 270.0 260.0 260.0 260.0 China GDP (% YoY) 4.8 0.4 3.9 -0.4 2.1 3.4 4.4 4.4 4.9 4.3 5.2 4.7 5.0 5.1 5.0 4.7 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 CPI headline (% YoY) 1.1 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.0 PBOC 7-day reverse repo 2.10 2.10 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.20 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.60 2.60 rate (% eop) 3M SHIBOR (% eop) 2.38 2.20 1.65 2.20 2.20 2.00 2.10 2.20 2.30 2.30 2.40 2.50 2.55 2.60 2.60 2.70 2.80 2.85 2.95 2.95 10-year T-bond yield (%, 2.80 2.75 2.75 2.95 2.95 2.95 3.1 3.2 3.35 3.35 3.45 3.55 3.65 3.80 3.80 3.90 4.00 4.15 4.25 4.25 eop) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) -8.0 -8.0 -6 -4 Public debt (% of GDP), 129.0 137.0 142.0 143.0 incl. local govt. UK GDP (% QoQ, ann) 2.8 0.9 -0.7 -0.5 4.4 -3.5 -2.1 0.6 0.8 -1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.6 CPI headline (% YoY) 6.2 9.2 10.0 10.9 9.1 10.3 7.7 6.2 3.9 7.1 2.9 2.0 1.9 1.7 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.8 2.1 1.9 BoE official bank rate (%, 0.75 1.25 2.25 3.50 3.50 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 2.25 eop) 3-month interest rate (%, 2.70 2.70 3.35 3.75 3.75 4.00 4.00 4.00 3.95 3.95 3.45 2.95 2.45 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.20 2.25 eop) 10-year interest rate (%, 2.50 2.25 4.10 3.20 3.20 3.30 3.20 3.10 3.10 3.10 2.90 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.80 2.90 3.00 3.00 3.00 3.00 eop) Fiscal balance (% of GDP) 4.0 5.2 3.0 2.5 Gross public debt/GDP 97.5 98.1 98.1 97.7 EUR/USD (eop) 1.11 1.05 0.97 1.02 1.02 0.98 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.02 1.05 1.08 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 1.10 USD/JPY (eop) 122 132 145 138 138 140 138 135 130 140 128 128 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 125 USD/CNY (eop) 6.34 6.69 7.11 7.22 7.22 7.35 7.25 7.18 7.13 7.13 7.1 7.00 6.85 7.05 7.05 7 6.95 7.20 7.12 7.12 EUR/GBP (eop) 0.84 0.86 0.88 .87 .87 .89 .88 .88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 ICE Brent -US$/bbl 98 112 98 94 100 100 100 105 110 104 98 90 88 83 90 73 75 78 75 75 (average) GDP forecasts are rounded to the nearest whole/half number, given the large magnitude and uncertainty surrounding our estimates Source: ING forecasts 43