Global Economic Outlook – September 2022 Nigeria: Sustaining positive growth amid low oil production and rising inflation Nigeria’s economy is The inflation rate is expected to The unemployment rate is expected to continue on remain in double digits in the short expected to remain heightened a positive trend, driven by to medium term due to structural due to limited investment by firms growth in the non-oil sector. challenges and rising energy prices. and low manufacturing capacity. Nigeria’s economy exceeded analysts’ expectations in 2021 Table 18: KPMG forecasts for Nigeria as it grew by 3.4%. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) had 2021 2022 2023 estimated a growth rate of 3.1%, while the IMF projected 2.6%. According to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), GDP 3.4 3.4 3.5 real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.1% in Q1 Inflation 15.6 16.1 13.1 2022 and 3.5% in Q2 2022. The economy has thus grown Unemployment rate 34.2 38.3 42.7 for seven consecutive quarters, following its exit from recession in 2020. This consistent positive performance was Source: NBS, CBN, IMF and KPMG forecasts. driven largely by the continuous growth in the non-oil sector, particularly in the financial services, telecommunications and agriculture subsectors. Year-on-year headline inflation rose to 19.6% in July 2022 Chart 52: Nigerian GDP annual growth from 18.6% in June 2022, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria data. 5% 4% 3% 2% 1% GDP growth, %0% -1% -2% -3% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GDP Upperbound Lowerbound Forecast Source: Nigeria Bureau of Statistics (NBS) (2015-2021), IMF (2022 and 2023), KPMG forecasts. © 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 53