Global Economic Outlook – September 2022 India: Driving growth on the back of inflation control India to remain Global geopolitical Investor-friendly policies such as the PLI among the fastest- tensions expected to schemes and their extension to newer growing economies create uncertainty in the sectors expected to help promote the globally. trajectory of inflation. manufacturing ecosystem in India. With the global economy suffering repeated shocks with Table 7: KPMG forecasts for India surges in inflation, sluggish growth across countries, and 2021 2022 2023 monetary policy tightening, the ripples are also being felt in India, discernible from the high inflation. However, the GDP 8.7 7. 2 6.3 country’s economy grew by 13.5% in Q1 of fiscal year Inflation 5.5 6.7 5.0 2022-23 backed by improvement in private consumption, largely on the back of the reopening of the services sector. Unemployment rate 8.0 7. 6 7. 1 As India celebrates 75 years of its independence, the Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation; CMIE, KPMG analysis. country has emerged as the fifth largest economy in the Note: The years represent the April-March period; for instance, 2021 spans from April 2021 to world replacing the UK , in value terms. As India celebrates March 2022. Real GDP numbers (at constant prices) for 2022 and 2023 and inflation rates for 2022 are advanced estimates by National Statistical Office (NSO) and the RBI’s survey of professional 75 years of its independence, the country has emerged forecasters. as the fifth largest economy in the world replacing the UK, in value terms, and is expected to rank among the fastest growing globally, with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) projecting a GDP growth of 7.2% for the fiscal year 2022-23 . Chart 25: India’s quarterly GDP growth 25% Forecast 20% 15% 10% -on-year5% 0% -5% -10% GDP growth, % year -15% -20% -25% Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: Survey of Professional Forecasters, RBI and National Statistical Office. © 2022 Copyright owned by one or more of the KPMG International entities. KPMG International entities provide no services to clients. All rights reserved. 26