occupations in sectors covered by the survey data these expectations could result in a decline of 26 set should at present expect to experience relative million jobs globally. stability in overall employment numbers, but a structural churn between 10% and 40% over the next five years. Energy transition and climate- In analyzing the patterns in job growth, decline change mitigation jobs and churn, seven groups of related jobs emerge, being collectively impacted by similar trends, either Another area survey respondents expect to grow positively or negatively. The following sections quickly, which currently employs a relatively small explore the developments in these seven job number of people, are jobs in renewable energy groups. and those related to climate change mitigation. This is reflected in almost universal expectations of growth for Renewable Energy Engineers and Solar Digital access and digital trade Energy Installation and System Engineers among enabled jobs respondents who identified these as common roles in their organisation. The same holds true for Sustainability Specialists and Environmental As noted in Chapter 2, 86% of respondents Protection Professionals that are expected to expect broadening digital access to transform their grow by 33% and 34% respectively, translating organization, with 52% expecting it to create job to growth of approximately 1 million jobs. This is growth and 19% expecting decline as a result. in line with business leaders’ expectations for the When combined with data on jobs trends, this green transition and climate-mitigation investments appears to drive expectations of job growth in to drive job growth as outlined in Chapter 2. This digital-trade related jobs and a reduction in roles expectation continues the growth in green jobs that where more digitalized global interactions cause labour markets around the world have witnessed aspects of face-to-face services and record- in the past four years, as indicated by additional keeping to become less necessary. research conducted by LinkedIn for this year’s Future of Jobs Report (see Box 3.1). For example, E-commerce Specialists, Digital Transformation Specialists, and Digital Marketing and Strategy Specialists are expected to increase Advanced technology jobs by 25-35%, leading to an increase of 2 million jobs. This growth expectation is not consistent across regions however, with South Asia expecting these Adoption of frontier technologies is also driving job roles to grow fastest at over 30%, and Sub-Saharan growth across three job families that currently do Africa the slowest at 15%. Respondents expect not employ large numbers of people: this growth on average to be faster for Digital Transformation Specialists in China (32%) and A 30-35% increase (1.4 million) in demand for slower in Japan (23%). roles such as Data Analysts and Scientists, Big Data Specialists, Business Intelligence Analysts, The decline of face-to-face and record-keeping Database and Network Professionals, and Data roles is consistent across industries, but most Engineers that is driven by advances and growth in pronounced in Information Technology and Digital adoption of frontier technologies which rely on big Communications, at around 50%, Financial data. This expectation of growth in these roles is Services (around 40%), and Supply Chain and common across countries, but particularly prevalent Transportation (around 40%). Other industries that in China, where growth is expected to be closer show relatively consistent decline include Education to 45%. Industries expecting high growth in these and Training (~30%), Energy and Materials (~35%), roles include Financial Services (31%), Retail and Infrastructure (~20%), Manufacturing (~30%), Wholesale of Consumer Goods (37%), and Supply Professional Services (~30%), and Retail and Chain and Transportation (42%), while expectations Wholesale of Consumer Goods (~20%). are more measured for Information Technology and Digital Communications, at just 8%. More specifically, respondents expect to see 25- 35% less demand for Cashiers and Ticket Clerks; Demand for AI and Machine Learning Specialists Data-entry Clerks; Accounting, Bookkeeping and is expected to grow by 40%, or 1 million jobs, Payroll Clerks; and Secretaries. The trend for Data as the usage of AI and machine learning drives Entry Clerks is consistent throughout the world, continued industry transformation. Recent research however it is particularly pronounced in Brazil (46%), on Generative AI indicates it may affect a significant 49 and slightly less prevalent in some high-income proportion of total worker tasks. However, countries such as Germany, the United States, this does not distinguish between tasks being Singapore and the United Kingdom, at around augmented vs automated. This research also finds 25%. Similar to Accounting, Bookkeeping and that this is most likely to affect higher wage roles Payroll Clerks, this trend is global, but particularly and jobs with greater barriers to entry. pronounced in Japan, Italy and the United States. Since these are currently popular occupations, A 31% increase in demand for Information-Security Future of Jobs Report 2023 33