Strategic Shareholder Climate and Risk Financial Financial Barclays PLC 318 report information sustainability report Governance review review statements Annual Report 2022 Risk performance - Credit risk (continued) Baseline average macroeconomic variables used in the calculation of ECL 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 As at 31 December 2022 % % % % % a UK GDP 3.3 (0.8) 0.9 1.8 1.9 b UK unemployment 3.7 4.5 4.4 4.1 4.2 c UK HPI 8.4 (4.7) (1.7) 2.2 2.2 UK bank rate 1.8 4.4 4.1 3.8 3.4 a US GDP 1.8 0.5 1.2 1.5 1.5 d US unemployment 3.7 4.3 4.7 4.7 4.7 e US HPI 11.2 1.8 1.5 2.3 2.4 US federal funds rate 2.1 4.8 3.6 3.1 3.0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 As at 31 December 2021 % % % % % a UK GDP 6.2 4.9 2.3 1.9 1.7 b UK unemployment 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.3 4.2 c UK HPI 4.7 1.0 1.9 1.9 2.3 UK bank rate 0.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.8 a US GDP 5.5 3.9 2.6 2.4 2.4 d US unemployment 5.5 4.2 3.6 3.6 3.6 e US HPI 11.8 4.5 5.2 4.9 5.0 US federal funds rate 0.2 0.3 0.9 1.2 1.3 Downside 2 average macroeconomic variables used in the calculation of ECL 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 As at 31 December 2022 % % % % % a UK GDP 3.3 (3.4) (3.8) 2.0 2.3 b UK unemployment 3.7 6.0 8.4 8.0 7.4 c UK HPI 8.4 (18.3) (18.8) (7.7) 8.2 UK bank rate 1.8 7.3 7.9 6.6 5.5 a US GDP 1.8 (2.7) (3.4) 2.0 2.6 d US unemployment 3.7 6.0 8.5 8.1 7.1 e US HPI 11.2 (3.1) (4.0) (1.9) 4.8 US federal funds rate 2.1 6.6 6.9 5.8 4.6 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 As at 31 December 2021 % % % % % a UK GDP 6.2 0.2 (4.0) 2.8 4.3 b UK unemployment 4.8 7.2 9.0 7.6 6.3 c UK HPI 4.7 (14.3) (21.8) 11.9 15.2 UK bank rate 0.1 2.2 3.9 3.1 2.2 a US GDP 5.5 (0.8) (3.5) 2.5 3.2 d US unemployment 5.5 6.4 9.1 8.1 6.4 e US HPI 11.8 (6.6) (9.0) 5.9 6.7 US federal funds rate 0.2 2.1 3.4 2.6 2.0 Notes a Average Real GDP seasonally adjusted change in year. b Average UK unemployment rate 16-year+. c Change in year end UK HPI = Halifax All Houses, All Buyers index, relative to prior year end. d Average US civilian unemployment rate 16-year+. e Change in year end US HPI = FHFA house price index, relative to prior year end.