2023 ECONOMIC AND CAPITAL MARKETS OUTLOOK Economic Outlook: Can the Fed engineer a soft landing of the US economy in 2023? Against the inflation backdrop described in the previous from considering the consensus forecast regarding the section, let’s turn to its corollary: economic growth. As probability of recession over the next 12 months. According previously discussed, the Fed has been laser-focused on to Bloomberg’s consensus (a measure of 81 chief economists cooling down the economy in a bid to slow the pace of price on Wall Street), the probability of recession in the US, UK, and increases. Still, as monetary conditions remain tight (and still the EU over the next year is already above 50% (Exhibit 15)— tightening), a question arises: Is the Fed cooling the economy they think it more likely than not that those economies will down too much? start shrinking in 2023. Setting aside the inability of forecasters to accurately predict the path of inflation, there is still much to glean Exhibit 15: Consensus probability of economic recession rising in US, Western Europe CONSENSUS PROBABILITY OF A RECESSION WITHIN 12 MONTHS % Probability of reeion % 100 100 90  S  90 80 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 r y l v r l n r y l p v n a a u p n a y u p v a a a u e o a J e o a a J e o J M M J S N J M M S N J M M S N Source: Bloomberg, Apollo Chief Economist. Data as of November 11, 2022. The information herein is provided for educational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice, nor should any information in this document be relied on when making an investment decision. Opinions and views expressed reflect the current opinions and views of the author(s) and Apollo Analysts as of the date hereof and are subject to change. Please see the end of this document for important disclosure information. 11