INVESTMENT OUTLOOK FOR 2023 - 21 - of producing and delivering more and more goods and services to near zero (or a marginal amount). Over the next decade, Industry 4.0 infrastructure looks set to expand to include, for example, self-driving cars using cheap renewable energy on smart transport ‘internets’. This should allow people to share mobility, but also communication and energy. Identifying themes and winners How can we identify those companies that can survive and prosper for the next 10 to 20 years? In our view, history has shown that the rate of technological change and cost declines have often surpassed projections. Just look at the share of electricity from renewable sources in total US power generation. Environmental solutions such as green hydrogen, solar energy or bio-plastics are disrupting manufacturing and supply chains and transforming global consumer behaviour. Understanding this accelerating consumption transformation helps to inform our investment decisions Understanding this accelerating transformation – and, importantly, its impact on the industries affected by it – helps to inform our investment decisions. We seek to benefit from the penetration of transformative technologies, the growth rates that this advance brings for industries and companies, and what this means for their lifecycles. Finding winners takes research, an open mind, and the ability to examine challenges and opportunities from multiple perspectives. It also means having the conviction to strictly target positive environmental outcomes. What is required is a wider understanding of the breadth – and, crucially, the inter- relatedness – of the challenges that, for example, the energy crisis presents and the opportunities it creates, such as an accelerated transition to renewable, locally produced sources of energy. A thorough understanding of previous and current periods of disruption can help us identify the potential investment winners of the coming new carbon-free age. And we are convinced that active investment management is the key to identifying companies that can outperform.