210 how should your business model evolve in light of a changing environment? A competitive business model that makes sense in today’s environment might be outdated or even obsolete tomorrow. We all have to improve our understanding of a model’s environment and how it might evolve. Of course we can’t be certain about the future, because of the complexities, uncertainties, and potential disruptions inherent in the evolving business environment. We can, however, develop a number of hypotheses about the future to serve as guidelines for designing tomorrow’s business models. Assumptions about how market forces, industry forces, key trends, and macroeconomic forces unfold give us the “design space” to develop potential business model options or prototypes (see p. 160) for the future. The role of business model scenarios (see p. 186) in forecasting should also be evi- dent by now. Painting pictures of the future makes it much easier to generate potential business models. Depending on your own criteria (e.g. acceptable level of risk, growth potential sought, etc.) you may then select one option over another. bmgen_final.indd 210 6/15/10 5:44 PM