Forecasts 60 | 61 2023 in numbers Financial market performance/forecasts 2022 YTD 2022 YTD performance on 2023 expected performance on 2023 expected Equities* 10 November 2022 total returns Credit 10 November 2022 total returns US equities –17.1% 2.0% Global investment grade –15.6% 4.6% We foresee sub-potential growth (1.6%) globally, which will likely lead to bonds** EMU equities –10.8% – 2.0% higher unemployment rates. Inflation will remain more elevated than in the Global high yield bonds** –13.4% 5.1% Swiss equities –13.0% 5.0% pre-pandemic years, but lower than in 2022. Emerging market HC bonds*** – 21.2% 7.6% UK equities 5.7% 3.0% Japanese equities –1.3% 1.5% Emerging market equities –19.7% 1.0% Forecasts for growth and inflation Close on End-2023 Currencies & Close on End-2023 Real GDP (y/y %) Inflation (annual avg. y/y %) Bond yields 10 November 2022 forecast commodities 10 November 2022 forecast 2021 2022E* 2023E* 2021 2022E* 2023E* 10-year US Treasury yield 3.81% 4.10% EUR/USD 1.02 1.02 Global 5.9 2.7 1.6 Global 3.5 7.6 5.0 10-year German Bund yield 2.01% 2.80% USD/CHF 0.96 0.95 United States 5.7 1.6 0.8 United States 4.7 7.9 3.8 10-year Swiss Eidgenossen 1.07% 1.40% EUR/CHF 0.98 0.97 Canada 4.4 3.4 1.0 Canada 3.4 6.9 3.8 yield USD/JPY 141.00 135.00 Eurozone 5.3 3.2 – 0.2 Eurozone 2.6 8.6 6.0 GBP/USD 1.17 1.14 Germany 2.9 1.7 – 0.8 Germany 3.2 8.5 6.4 USD/CNY 7.19 7.30 Italy 6.6 3.7 – 0.2 Italy 1.9 8.2 6.0 Gold (USD/oz) 1755.00 1750.00 France 6.8 2.5 0.2 France 2.1 6.0 4.8 WTI (USD/bbl) 86.00 80.00 Spain 5.1 4.6 0.8 Spain 2.9 9.0 4.6 United Kingdom 7.4 4.2 – 0.4 United Kingdom 2.6 9.0 6.6 Switzerland 4.2 2.2 1.0 Switzerland 0.6 2.9 1.5 Japan 1.7 1.0 0.5 Japan – 0.2 2.2 1.7 Australia 4.7 4.0 1.6 Australia 2.8 6.6 5.2 China 8.1 3.3 4.5 China 0.9 2.2 2.0 India (fiscal year) 8.3 7.1 5.8 India (fiscal year) 5.1 6.8 5.1 * P erformance and expected returns are total return including dividends. Markets refer to MSCI country / regional indices in local currency. Performance of the periods. 10/11/2017–10/11/2022 for those indices in chronological order are: MSCI USA: 9.5%, 13.6%, 18.6%, 33.5%, Brazil 4.6 2.9 0.9 Brazil 8.3 9.3 5.0 –15.4%. MSCI EMU: – 5.9%, 15.4%, – 3.5%, 29.2%, –11.4%. MSCI Switzerland: 2.9%, 17.9%, 2.7%, 23.9%, –10.1%. MSCI UK: – 0.3%, 7.8%, –13.1%, 21.3%, 7.0%. MSCI Japan: – 4.6%, 5.8%, 2.9%, 22.3%, –1.5%. MSCI EM: – 7.9%, 12.6%, 15.0%, 11.0%, – 21.7%. Russia 4.7 – 4.0 – 2.5 Russia 6.7 14.2 4.5 ** Barclays Global Investment Grade Corporate and Global High Y ield index * E: estimate *** JP Morgan EMBIG Div. (sovereign index) Note: Historical and/or projected performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance. Note Historical and/or projected performance indications and financial market scenarios are not reliable indicators of current or future performance. Last data point 10/11/2022 Source Thomson Reuters Datastream, Haver Analytics, Credit Suisse Last data point 10/11/2022 Source Bloomberg, Datastream, Credit Suisse