Interstate confrontations are anticipated by GRPS respondents to remain largely economic in nature over the next 10 years. However, the recent uptick in military expenditure and proliferation of new technologies to a wider range of actors could drive a global arms race in emerging technologies. The longer-term global risks landscape could be de昀椀ned by multi-domain con昀氀icts and asymmetric warfare, with the targeted deployment of new-tech weaponry on a potentially more destructive scale than seen in recent decades. Transnational arms control mechanisms must quickly adapt to this new security context, to strengthen the shared moral, reputational and political costs that act as a deterrent to accidental and intentional escalation. Technology will exacerbate inequalities while risks from cybersecurity will remain a constant concern The technology sector will be among the central targets of stronger industrial policies and enhanced Climate mitigation and climate state intervention. Spurred by state aid and military adaptation efforts are set up for a expenditure, as well as private investment, research risky trade-off, while nature and development into emerging technologies will continue at pace over the next decade, yielding collapses advancements in AI, quantum computing and biotechnology, among other technologies. For countries that can afford it, these technologies will Climate and environmental risks are the core focus of provide partial solutions to a range of emerging global risks perceptions over the next decade – and crises, from addressing new health threats and a are the risks for which we are seen to be the least crunch in healthcare capacity to scaling food security prepared. The lack of deep, concerted progress on and climate mitigation. For those that cannot, climate targets has exposed the divergence between inequality and divergence will grow. In all economies, what is scienti昀椀cally necessary to achieve net zero these technologies also bring risks, from widening and what is politically feasible. Growing demands misinformation and disinformation to unmanageably on public-and private-sector resources from other rapid churn in both blue- and white-collar jobs. crises will reduce the speed and scale of mitigation efforts over the next two years, alongside insuf昀椀cient However, the rapid development and deployment progress towards the adaptation support required of new technologies, which often comes with for those communities and countries increasingly limited protocols governing their use, poses its affected by the impacts of climate change. own set of risks. The ever-increasing intertwining of technologies with the critical functioning of As current crises diverts resources from risks arising societies is exposing populations to direct domestic over the medium to longer term, the burdens threats, including those that seek to shatter on natural ecosystems will grow given their still societal functioning. Alongside a rise in cybercrime, undervalued role in the global economy and overall attempts to disrupt critical technology-enabled planetary health. Nature loss and climate change resources and services will become more common, are intrinsically interlinked – a failure in one sphere with attacks anticipated against agriculture and will cascade into the other. Without signi昀椀cant policy water, 昀椀nancial systems, public security, transport, change or investment, the interplay between climate energy and domestic, space-based and undersea change impacts, biodiversity loss, food security communication infrastructure. Technological risks and natural resource consumption will accelerate are not solely limited to rogue actors. Sophisticated ecosystem collapse, threaten food supplies and analysis of larger data sets will enable the misuse livelihoods in climate-vulnerable economies, amplify of personal information through legitimate legal the impacts of natural disasters, and limit further mechanisms, weakening individual digital sovereignty progress on climate mitigation. and the right to privacy, even in well-regulated, democratic regimes. Global Risks Report 2023 8