FIGURE B Short- and long-term global outlook "Which of the following best characterizes your outlook for the world over the short-term (2 years) and longer-term (10 years)? 2% 2% 2 years 13% 69% 14% 10 years 20% 34% 26% 11% 9% Progressive tipping points and persistent crises leading to catastrophic outcomes Consistently volatile across economies and industries with multiple shocks accentuating divergent trajectories Slightly volatile with occasional localised surprises Limited volatility with relative stability Renewed stability with a revival of global resilience Source World Economic Forum, Global Risks Perception Survey 2022-2023. Food, fuel and cost crises global shock is shrinking. Over the next 10 years, exacerbate societal vulnerabilities fewer countries will have the 昀椀scal headroom to invest while declining investments in in future growth, green technologies, education, care and health systems. The slow decay of public human development erode future infrastructure and services in both developing and resilience advanced markets may be relatively subtle, but accumulating impacts will be highly corrosive to the strength of human capital and development – a critical Compounding crises are widening their impact across mitigant to other global risks faced. societies, hitting the livelihoods of a far broader section of the population, and destabilizing more economies in the world, than traditionally vulnerable As volatility in multiple domains communities and fragile states. Building on the most grows in parallel, the risk of severe risks expected to impact in 2023 – including polycrises accelerates “Energy supply crisis”, “Rising in昀氀ation” and “Food supply crisis” – a global Cost-of-living crisis is already being felt. Economic impacts have been Concurrent shocks, deeply interconnected risks cushioned by countries that can afford it, but many and eroding resilience are giving rise to the risk of lower-income countries are facing multiple crises: polycrises – where disparate crises interact such debt, climate change and food security. Continued that the overall impact far exceeds the sum of each supply-side pressures risk turning the current cost-of- part. Eroding geopolitical cooperation will have ripple living crisis into a wider humanitarian crisis within the effects across the global risks landscape over the next two years in many import-dependent markets. medium term, including contributing to a potential polycrisis of interrelated environmental, geopolitical Associated social unrest and political instability will and socioeconomic risks relating to the supply of and not be contained to emerging markets, as economic demand for natural resources. pressures continue to hollow out the middle-income bracket. Mounting citizen frustration at losses in The report describes four potential futures centred human development and declining social mobility, around food, water and metals and mineral shortages, together with a widening gap in values and equality, all of which could spark a humanitarian as well as an are posing an existential challenge to political systems ecological crisis – from water wars and famines to around the world. The election of less centrist leaders continued overexploitation of ecological resources as well as political polarization between economic and a slowdown in climate mitigation and adaption. superpowers over the next two years may also reduce Given uncertain relationships between global risks, space further for collective problem-solving, fracturing similar foresight exercises can help anticipate potential alliances and leading to a more volatile dynamic. connections, directing preparedness measures towards minimizing the scale and scope of polycrises With a crunch in public-sector funding and competing before they arise. security concerns, our capacity to absorb the next Global Risks Report 2023 9