2 Inflation rising, growth in retreat from the Great Resignation or Reshuffle and The IMF, in common with other forecasters, continuing supply chain disruption, especially has cut its projection for global GDP growth in areas such as chips for cars. The war in this year to 3.6% from almost 5% six months Ukraine means risk for Central and Eastern earlier. Behind this move is a sequence of Europe. But with that comes greater willingness events: the necessary withdrawal of stimulus to take risks in other regions – South East by central banks in the wake of covid-19; the Asia, India, Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, rise in interest rates to counter a growing surge The Philippines, the Middle East, Africa and of inflation; Vladimir Putin’s decision to attack North and South America. China’s lockdown Ukraine; and the mounting challenge faced by in Shanghai, meanwhile, has highlighted that China’s zero-covid policy. The world now finds country’s covid-19 policy and could further itself in a more precarious place than most exacerbate global supply chain issues. So what people imagined at the end of 2021; Goldman does all this mean? Less robust economic Sachs has estimated a 35% risk of recession growth is important as it’s one of the drivers of in the next two years. Former US Treasury S4Capital’s growth. However, the burgeoning Secretary Larry Summers was prescient in commitment in Europe to increasing defence foreseeing the inflationary effect of pandemic budgets – Germany is a good example – will stimulus and central bankers’ worries have pay dividends for tech companies, especially pivoted from unemployment to rising prices as cyber is now a vital part of military and wages. Spurred by energy prices, inflation capability, as will the increasing demand for in the US this year is tipped by the IMF at digital transformation as global GDP growth 7.7%, its highest level in decades. That is all slows. compounded by labour shortages ensuing World economic outlook growth projections US advertising revenue estimates Global Advanced Emerging markets & Increase in advertising revenue economy economies developing economies 2022E vs 2019 6.8% 6.1% 5.2% 92.5% 4.4% 3.6% 3.6% 3.8% 3.3% 2.4% 11.3% 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 2021 2022 2023 -9.1% -3.9% Source: IMF, April 2022 -31.0% -32.0% Online TV Radio Outdoor Advertising revenue year-on-year growth Magazines Newspapers 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E Online TV Radio Outdoor Magazines Newspapers E: Estimate Sources: Company reports, MoffettNathanson estimates and analysis S4Capital Annual Report and Accounts 2021 41