Industry outlook A perfect storm By Sir Martin Sorrell We began 2022 optimistically, thinking global GDP growth, at least for 2022, would be 4-5%, on top of 5-6% for 2021, reflecting the bounce-back from the slump in 2020 and driven by the huge, global, co-ordinated covid-19 monetary and fiscal stimulus totalling around $10-15 trillion. In fact, we were moving towards the eye of a rapidly gathering tempest. Since then, the economic consequences of the pandemic on supply chains and employment, rampant inflation, increasing interest rates, the bitter and vicious war in Ukraine and new zero-covid lockdowns in China have conspired to create a perfect storm in which growth forecasts are downgraded and risk in some parts of the world is being elevated. The strong bounce-back previously expected this year will be dampened and over the horizon in 2023, the clouds look even darker. At S4Capital we’ll trim our sails accordingly and won’t be blown off course. But navigation will, as ever, be challenging. 40 S4Capital Annual Report and Accounts 2021