DEMOCRATIC GOVERNANCE DECLINING GLOBALLY LIBERAL DEMOCRACY INDEX The wave of 0.5 democratization that surged around the world after the end of the Cold 0.4 War has crested, and aggregate global levels of democracy have 0.3 World average begun to decline in (population weighted) recent years. World average 0.2 0.1 0 1980 85 90 95 2000 05 10 15 20 Source: Varieties of Democracy’s Liberal Democracy Index measures electoral freedoms, civil liberties, rule of law, and constraints on the executive branch. 1980s and 1990s, a mix of factors has led to Looking forward, many democracies are likely democratic stagnation or backsliding, includ- to be vulnerable to further erosion and even ing weak state capacity, tenuous rule of law, collapse. An academic study of 75 democra- fragile traditions of tolerance for opposition, cies that experienced substantial democratic high inequality, corruption, and militaries decline since 1994 found that 60 of them (or with a strong role in politics. Externally, China, 80 percent) eventually became autocracies. Russia and other actors, in varying ways, are However, the decline is not inexorable, and undermining democracies and supporting it may ultimately re昀氀ect a bad patch in a long illiberal regimes. This support includes sharing cycle that has seen democracy advance and technology and expertise for digital repres- retreat, with an overarching trend to more sion. In particular, some foreign actors are democracy during the past century. The long- attempting to undermine public trust in elec- term legitimacy of democratic systems hinges tions, threatening the viability of democratic on two general conditions: maintaining a fair, systems. Both internal and external actors are inclusive, and equitable political process and increasingly manipulating digital information delivering positive outcomes for populations. and spreading disinformation to shape public Addressing public concerns about corruption, views and achieve political objectives. elite capture, and inequality can help restore public trust and strengthen institutional legiti- 84 GLOBAL TRENDS 2040